4.5.20 eNASCAR Pro Invitational

Sunday brings another virtual Nascar race to us through the iRacing simulation platform. This race takes place on the Bristol Motor Speedway track, providing some tight groupings that can lead to a lot of crashes due to lagging internet connections or otherwise over aggressive maneuvers. We will look at a few of the top projected drivers, acknowledge trends from what we’ve seen, and come up with a sample lineup. This is a risky tournament due to so many weird variables that cannot be accounted for so please just try to have fun here and don’t bet your mortgage on some faulty internet connections and drivers who may not be taking this as seriously as others. 

First of all, below you can see the Draftkings scoring system that is heavily weighted on predicting top finishers, with no captain’s slot or any distinction between picks. The name of this game will be finding lower priced participants that finish well to help afford the more premium guys that are safer bets to show up around the top of the leaderboard. 

Scoring

General
Place Differential+/- 1 Pt
Fastest Laps+0.5 Pts
Laps Led+0.25 Pts
Finishing Position Scoring
1st+46 Pts
2nd+42 Pts
3rd+41 Pts
4th+40 Pts
5th+39 Pts
6th+38 Pts
7th+37 Pts
8th+36 Pts
9th+35 Pts
10th+34 Pts
11th+33 Pts
12th+32 Pts
13th+31 Pts
14th+30 Pts
15th+29 Pts
16th+28 Pts
17th+27 Pts
18th+26 Pts
19th+25 Pts
20th+24 Pts
21st+23 Pts
22nd+22 Pts
23rd+21 Pts
24th+20 Pts
25th+19 Pts
26th+18 Pts
27th+17 Pts
28th+16 Pts
29th+15 Pts
30th+14 Pts
31st+13 Pts
32nd+12 Pts
33rd+11 Pts
34th+10 Pts
35th+9 Pts
36th+8 Pts
37th+7 Pts
38th+6 Pts
39th+5 Pts
40th+4 Pts

First we have some first thoughts on the slate as a whole. Lineup construction seems to be focused on locking in the top performers and then finding value plays that will severely outperform their salary expectations. This race will likely see a bunch of crashes which can make anything happen, luckily cars can be repaired in iRacing and a crash doesn’t completely bury your driver. Another thing to consider is that the field varies in terms of their experience levels with virtual racing as well as the quality of their rig and internet connection. This is all a drawn out way of saying **** happens and this could result in a topsy turvy day of random drivers finding success and the top drivers calling out their internet providers on Twitter. 

Below we have current betting odds for each driver. These odds are as of 7:00 PM EST on 4/4 and we will look for some value plays relative to their DK pricing. Draftkings did a great job pricing the slate in accordance with their projected performance so we will need to find some value!

NameSalaryBetting Odds
Timmy Hill$10700+500
William Byron$10500+300
Garrett Smithley$10200+800
Ryan Preece$10000+800
Dale Earnhardt Jr$9800+850
Alex Bowman$9600+1000
Denny Hamlin$9300+1000
Parker Kligerman$9100+1200
Landon Cassill$8900+1200
John H. Nemechek$8700+2000
Matt DiBenedetto$8500+2000
Michael McDowell$8300+2000
Erik Jones$8100+2200
Bubba Wallace$7900+2500
Clint Bowyer$7800+2800
Kyle Larson$7600+2800
Chase Elliott$7500+2800
Bobby Labonte$7200+3300
Joey Logano$7100+2800
Kurt Busch$6900+3300
Daniel Suarez$6700+4000
Ty Dillon$6600+4000
Kyle Busch$6500+3300
Ross Chastain$6400+4000
Brad Keselowski$6200+3300
Ryan Blaney$6000+5000
Chris Buescher$5900+5000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$5800+5000
Christopher Bell$5700+5000
Tyler Reddick$5200+5000
Jimmie Johnson$5000+6600
Austin Dillon$4900+6600

The top guys on this slate really don’t need much explanation. Timmy Hill and William Byron are really the 1a and 1b guys for this slate and trying to fit both on a team will be tricky. We are liking Dale Earnhardt, given his great success on the last 2 iRaces and hopefully his questionable designation will throw off some early lineup builders and his ownership will be lower than it should. Preece seems to be the guy who is really a bit overpriced at the top and should see lower ownership than his other peers around the $10,000 mark. This could be a great lower ownership play to differentiate your lineups. 

Once we move down the list, things begin to get murky. Chase Elliott has an awesome rig and he has to be itching to perform in a way that allows him to show it off, at $7500 it’s a fun gamble on somebody who certainly takes this more seriously than others. Beyond this, looking for racer pedigree and prior performance in iRacing. Landon Cassill performed well last week and has a good amount of iRacing experience, making him a safer choice under $9000 to perform.  

Kurt Busch is the only player under $7000 to have already made a top 10 finish in an iRacing event. Before that, he finished at the bottom of the field and we don’t know if this was a sign of improvement or simply luck. Jimmie Johnson is an interesting play at an extremely low price of $5000. The obvious pedigree is there, but with a lack of virtual experience. That being said, he has apparently hired a tutor to practice his skills and could outperform his salary here in a big way. 

When looking to craft your lineup(s), find the value guys you like first and then see which top projected guys you can afford to round it out. It’s much more difficult than a standard tournament to really set on a target favorite because these guys can be distracted by the TV, their dog, their kids, or just bad internet. Play some cheaper tournaments, play your favorite guys, and enjoy some Sunday afternoon fun with this race. Don’t take things too seriously and stay safe. 

Sample Lineup

Timmy Hill $10700

Dale Earnhardt $9800

Landon Cassill $8900

Kyle Larson $7600

Chase Elliott $7500

Jimmie Johnson $5000 

Thank you for reading! Please check out our podcast, yesterdays LOL slate info, and yesterdays CSGO slate info for even more great content. Follow us on twitter to stay up to date on all future posts. @GameOnDFS1

Podcast: https://www.launchpaddm.com/pd/Game-On-DFS

4.4.20 LOL LCK: https://gameondailyfantasy.com/2020/04/03/4-4-20-lol-lck-slate/

4.3.20 LOL: https://gameondailyfantasy.com/2020/04/02/4-3-20-lol-slate/

4.3-4.20 LOL LEC: https://gameondailyfantasy.com/2020/04/02/4-3-4-20-lol-lec-slate/

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