05.05.20 DK Main Slate Analysis *Premium*

The main slate on DK starts at 12:30 PM EST and features 4 games from ESL’s road to Rio tournament. Two of these games are massive favorites with players priced to reflect that. The key to this slate will certainly be all about finding the right value guys to make your rosters work and we will take a look to see if the top guys are worth paying up for or not. Please let me know in discord if you have any questions or thoughts, our main article will be out a bit later with the other games on the 5th. 

So before looking at the games below and our player chart (sorted by salary) what are the key points to focus on? Which teams will win, will they be sweeps or 2-1 series, do any of these teams have consistent top performers, and which team is too expensive or too cheap? We will look to answer these questions down below. 

FaZe(-526) V GODSENT(+345) (12:30 PM EST)

c0ntact(+134) V North(-175) (12:30 PM EST)

Dignitas(+509) V Astralis(-909) (4:00 PM EST)

Heretics(+141) V NiP(-185) (4:00 PM EST)

TeamPlayerDK SalaryRecent RatingKills / RoundKASTImpact
FaZeNiKo9,2001.20.7872.20%1.26
HERMaka9,0001.180.7471.40%1.29
Adevice8,8001.180.7671.40%1.26
Amagisk8,6001.120.772.20%1.13
FaZebroky8,4001.110.6775.70%0.93
AXyp9x8,2001.110.6873.90%1.02
cGEspiranTo8,0001.060.769.40%1.08
HERNivera7,8001.180.7874.50%1.12
cGottoND7,6001.070.6771.70%1.06
FaZecoldzera7,6001.10.6974.10%0.98
Naizy7,4001.070.7269.90%1.09
Adupreeh7,4001.080.6972.10%1.04
NKjaerbye7,2001.030.6766.80%1.02
DIGhallzerk7,2001.170.7568.80%1.31
NiPnawwk7,2001.10.774.80%1.04
NMSL7,0000.960.6266.00%0.97
Agla1ve7,0001.020.6270.90%0.97
FaZerain7,0001.060.6569.60%1.14
GODSTYKO6,8001.080.7269.60%1.05
NiPPlopski6,8001.190.7574.70%1.21
NiPREZ6,8001.090.6871.90%1.1
GODzehN6,6001.050.769.10%0.98
DIGf0rest6,6001.130.7471.80%1.12
cGemi6,6000.930.5866.80%0.93
GODMaden6,4001.080.7367.80%1.2
Ncajunb6,4000.980.6368.90%0.87
DIGGeT_RiGhT6,4001.050.6768.50%1.1
NiPLekr06,2001.090.6971.50%1.06
NiPtwist6,2001.050.6470.70%1.05
HERLucky6,2001.140.6973.90%1.11
Ngade6,0000.990.6270.20%0.95
cGSHiPZ6,0000.970.6168.60%0.92
GODMaikelele5,8000.960.669.00%0.92
FaZeolofmeister5,6000.930.5669.10%0.78
HERkioShiMa5,4001.030.6172.00%0.87
cGLETN15,2000.860.5463.90%0.75
DIGfriberg5,0000.930.7268.30%0.95
DIGXizt4,8000.880.5367.90%0.72
HERxms4,6000.980.671.70%0.89
GODkRYSTAL4,4000.840.5165.10%0.8

We will start by predicting the winning teams. There is no reason whatsoever to doubt FaZe and Astralis here. North should win over c0ntact but map selection will play a large role in this as both teams have top heavy pools. If North drops their pick they will lose, but we’ll see. NiP is a more talented team than Heretics and they are in good form so they should be able to pull out a close series. 

Winners: FaZe, Astralis, North, NiP

Now we want to understand which of these series will likely go to 3 games. FaZe is much more talented than GODSENT but we do not feel fully confident in a sweep, and we’ve seen them drop a map to Movistar Riders and North recently. We are very confident in c0ntact pushing their series to 3 games. They are too good on Mirage and Inferno and will be able to win whichever one they roll with in this series. Astralis versus Dignitas seems like a sweep but we have a feeling Astralis will lose out on a map and it’ll go 3. They’ve had issues closing out maps recently against some lesser teams and that can happen again here. NiP is a better team than Heretics but Heretics have been playing well, have a few maps they excel on, and two budding stars that make it difficult to count out. 

3 game series: Possibly all 4, no advantages here

FaZe has NiKo who is usually backed up broky and then coldzera. Dignitas is about hallzerk and f0rest. Astralis is a mess of good players but device is the guy at the end of the day. Heretics is led fully by Maka and Nivera. NiP is like Astralis in that they often have rotating stars. 

Teams with consistent stars: FaZe, Heretics, NiP

The North players aren’t phenomenally talented but they face an opponent who has been struggling hard and everyone on the team is under 8k. The Dignitas guys are cheap but they should be against Astralis. Nivera is very cheap on DK but the rest of the team is about right for Heretics. NiP is the top value target on this slate as they are all way too cheap on this slate for this position. 

“Underpriced” Teams: North, NiP

The 3 teams that stick out to us significantly are FaZe, Astralis, and NiP. All three should win and have 2-3 star players. We can start with NiP for the value from nawwk and look across the aisle for Nivera as well who is one of my favorite targets today. From FaZe, NiKo is a must play and broky is a great sidekick. Astralis is always difficult, but device and Xyp9x are our top targets today. These are our core plays for the day and we can look at the auxiliary players from these highlighted teams to help fill out rosters. With how this slate is priced, we recommend trying to find a captain under 11k so you don’t limit yourself too much with your other roster spots. If you try NiKo or somebody like that at captain, you could get stuck with your team. 

Obviously you shouldn’t start every team exactly like this, but it’s a great mental exercise of how to take a slate and narrow it down into a starting point. With larger slates especially, we do these exercises to find our target teams and then will look at our remaining salary and top plays from other teams to round out lineups. You can then start your next lineup with the next best teams and work in the same fashion, making sure you have exposure to all of the top guys. On days when your assumptive answers to the above questions work out, you will have a good day and a great one if you happen to align the right players in the right way. There will also be off days when your assumptions are off or a great team has an off performance and disappoints you and their fans.  

Now that you have your lineups, where do you enter them? There are GPPS (large tournaments with less winners) and cash games which are 50/50s and other tournaments with more people winning smaller returns. Cash games should only be entered with safer teams full of comfort picks of the teams you feel confident in and there is no harm in putting these lineups in GPPS as well. The difference in making a GPP lineup is you have to take risks to shoot for the top. The analysis we just did? Everybody else understands who is underpriced here and top players will be owned by a large number of DFS players. What happens if you have a feeling that a lesser player will perform well and you want him as your captain to pay up for one of the top guys as well? If that works out, your lineup will have far fewer clones in the contest and help give you an edge. GPPS are all about entering lots of lineups, using your core plays along with a mix of the risky guys that can carry you to the top. 

The big fish out there all max enter GPPs and you have a disadvantage if you only enter a few lineups. If you do it for fun, that’s great and some of us play like that as well, but cash games are the best way to play a bit each day and more consistently feel good about how your day went. When looking at small slates like this one in particular though, there is such a small margin of error with your picks that one poor choice can sink a lineup completely, making cash games a bad idea with inherently more risk.  

Hopefully you have a better idea of how to start your lineups for this slate now and a frame of mind for looking at other slates as well. DFS can be a hobby or a career and you need to make sure you approach it correctly depending on which one of those categories you fit in and never go beyond what you intend to lose either way because anything can happen in sports or esports and you are not going to win every day. Be methodical, maybe be a bit crafty with your lineups, but always have fun. Game on.  

Thank you for reading! Follow us on twitter to stay up to date on all future posts. @GameOnDFS

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