The Real Heroes 400 (Darlington) 5/17

We are back on the pavement instead of the server this weekend and a lot of the top drivers are relieved that their nightmare is over. This race will only be 293-laps with no on-track preparation. That likely means that starting position plays a bigger role in who leads at the finish since drivers will be more cautious. 

First of all, below you can see the Draftkings scoring system that is heavily weighted on predicting top finishers, with no captain’s slot or any distinction between picks. The name of this game will be finding lower priced participants that finish well to help afford the more premium guys that are safer bets to show up around the top of the leader board. With a solid amount of points being given as a result of place differential, it’s important to pay attention to where racers will be starting in order to find good opportunities.  

Draftkings Scoring

General
Place Differential+/- 1 Pt
Fastest Laps+0.5 Pts
Laps Led+0.25 Pts
Finishing Position Scoring
1st+46 Pts
2nd+42 Pts
3rd+41 Pts
4th+40 Pts
5th+39 Pts
6th+38 Pts
7th+37 Pts
8th+36 Pts
9th+35 Pts
10th+34 Pts
11th+33 Pts
12th+32 Pts
13th+31 Pts
14th+30 Pts
15th+29 Pts
16th+28 Pts
17th+27 Pts
18th+26 Pts
19th+25 Pts
20th+24 Pts
21st+23 Pts
22nd+22 Pts
23rd+21 Pts
24th+20 Pts
25th+19 Pts
26th+18 Pts
27th+17 Pts
28th+16 Pts
29th+15 Pts
30th+14 Pts
31st+13 Pts
32nd+12 Pts
33rd+11 Pts
34th+10 Pts
35th+9 Pts
36th+8 Pts
37th+7 Pts
38th+6 Pts
39th+5 Pts
40th+4 Pts

The largest difference for Fanduel is the lack of scoring for place differential, with points for completing laps instead. This negates the lack of knowledge of where the racers will be starting until just before the contest and helps reward drivers who finish the race over those who give up or say things you probably shouldn’t on stream. 

Fanduel Scoring

Fastest Laps0.4
Laps Completed0.1
Laps Led0.25
Incidents-.1
1st place43
2nd place40
3rd place38
4th place37
5th place36
6th place35
7th place34
8th place33
9th place32
10th place31
11th place30
12th place29
13th place28
14th place27
15th place26
16th place25
17th place24
18th place23
19th place22
20th place21
21st place20
22nd place19
23rd place18
24th place17
25th place16
26th place15
27th place14
28th place13
29th place12
30th place11
31st place10
32nd place9
33rd place8
34th place7
35th place6
36th place5
37th place4
38th place3
39th place2
40th place1

Lineup construction is focused on locking in likely top performers and then finding value plays that will severely outperform their salary expectations. Now that we are back to normal racing, there should be more consistent performances, fewer strange issues, but also the issue of more severe fallout from crashes.

Below we have current betting odds for each driver. These odds are as of 10:00 PM EST on 5/16 and we will look for some value plays relative to their FD & DK pricing. 

NameDraftkings SalaryFanduel SalaryBetonline OddsWilliam Hill Odds
Kyle Busch11,80014,000+600+500
Kevin Harvick11,50014,500+600+750
Denny Hamlin11,10012,500+700+700
Martin Truex Jr10,80011,500+750+800
Brad Keselowski10,40012,000+800+750
Joey Logano10,10012,200+800+750
Chase Elliott9,80011,700+800+850
Ryan Blaney9,50010,400+2500+1400
Erik Jones9,2009,800+1600+2000
Alex Bowman9,00010,600+1000+1100
William Byron8,7009,000+2800+2800
Kurt Busch8,5009,400+1800+2200
Jimmie Johnson8,30010,000+2500+2200
Clint Bowyer8,1008,400+6600+7500
Matt Kenseth7,9007,200+3300+4000
Aric Almirola7,7008,000+5000+6000
Matt DiBenedetto7,5007,800+3300+4000
Austin Dillon7,4006,200+10000+10000
Tyler Reddick7,2006,600+8000+7500
Chris Buescher7,0007,300+8000+10000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr6,8006,400+20000+15000
Christopher Bell6,6006,000+10000+10000
Ryan Newman6,5007,000+10000+10000
Cole Custer6,3006,800+10000+12500
Daniel Suarez6,2004,500+20000+75000
Ryan Preece6,1004,000+50000+75000
Bubba Wallace6,0005,500+50000+30000
John H. Nemechek5,9005,000+25000+75000
Corey Lajoie5,8003,500+100000+250000
Ty Dillon5,6005,000+50000+50000
Brennan Poole5,5003,000+100000+250000
Michael McDowell5,4004,000+50000+75000
Timmy Hill5,2002,000+100000+250000
Reed Sorenson5,1003,000+100000+250000
Josh Bilicki5,0002,000+250000
BJ McLeod4,9002,000+250000
Garrett Smithley4,8002,000+100000+250000
Joey Gase4,7002,500+100000+250000
Quin Houff4,6002,000+100000+250000
JJ Yeley4,5002,500+100000+250000

Top tier: 

Brad Keselowski has finished in the top 10 at Darlington in 4 of his last 5 appearances and is a safe bet to do so again. He’s expensive here but has the track record to prove it. Kevin Harvick has been a beast at Darlington, finishing in the top 10 in all six attempts since 2014. He comes in at a slight discount to Kyle Busch but should be right there with him at the top of the leaderboard when it’s over. Kyle Busch is the other top guy to chase, who is also the betting favorite and most expensive option. He went from 33rd to 3rd last year at Darlington and led the most laps of any driver. He seems like a man on a mission right now and it’s tough to bet against him. 

Mid tier: 

Alex Bowman is starting second but he isn’t priced like it. He’s 4th in the points standings and with his positioning, his price is just too low for the upside. Erik Jones isn’t cheap but he’s the defending champion with great overall success on this track. He might be a bit chalky but there’s a reason for that. Jimmie Johnson is our last guy here and in his last full season he’s going to want to make the most of it. He’s had a lot of success at Darlington and he is starting 8th, hopefully aligning the stars for him at Darlington one last time. 

High risk / high return: 

Matt DiBenedetto is starting third and Aric Almirola is starting 5th. Both of these guys are cheap for where they are beginning and the hope is they can hang around in a short race and finish with some solid placement points at a cheap rate. They are risky, but with great upside given how this race is shaping up to be. 

Good luck to everyone playing the big NASCAR tournaments this weekend. This is the first race in a while and with little prep this could be a bit dicey. It’s a shorter race and we are not keen on playing too many people starting towards the back as time will slip away quickly. Good luck and game on.

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