We are back at it Wednesday night with this condensed schedule. There were a lot of disappointing mistakes, accidents, and disqualifications on Sunday and sadly that’s just how DFS for NASCAR is. We’ll do our best here to avoid those guys but there’s no way to predict accidents!
First of all, below you can see the Draftkings scoring system that is heavily weighted on predicting top finishers, with no captain’s slot or any distinction between picks. The name of this game will be finding lower priced participants that finish well to help afford the more premium guys that are safer bets to show up around the top of the leaderboard. With a solid amount of points being given as a result of place differential, it’s important to pay attention to where racers will be starting in order to find good opportunities. This will be set right before lock so if you play this seriously, you have to be paying attention (or just play on Fanduel haha).
|Place Differential||+/- 1 Pt|
|Fastest Laps||+0.5 Pts|
|Laps Led||+0.25 Pts|
|Finishing Position Scoring|
The largest difference for Fanduel is the lack of scoring for place differential, with points for completing laps instead. This negates the lack of knowledge of where the racers will be starting until just before the contest and helps reward drivers who finish the race over those who give up or say things you probably shouldn’t on stream.
Lineup construction is focused on locking in likely top performers and then finding value plays that will severely outperform their salary expectations. Now that we are back to normal racing, there should be more consistent performances, fewer strange issues, but also the issue of more severe fallout from crashes.
Below we have current betting odds for each driver. These odds are as of 10:00 AM EST on 5/26 and we will look for some value plays relative to their FD & DK pricing.
|Name||Draftkings Salary||Fanduel Salary||Betonline Odds||William Hill Odds|
|Martin Truex Jr||9,400||14,000||+500||4-1|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr||7,300||6,300||+10000||150-1|
|John H. Nemechek||5,700||6,000||+20000||500-1|
Martin Truex Jr. should be mega chalk here. He has finished in the top 6 in 8/9 recent starts in Charlotte and a starting position in the mid teens means there is some upside for place differential as well. Jimmie Johnson is an obvious pick as well but hard to afford. He is starting last and place differential means everything for a shorter race like this so the sky’s the limit for him and a top 10 finish would leave him at the top of the pack for fantasy purposes. Clint Bowyer is an almost must play on FD with his stupid pricing and he will be the mega chalk there, starting 39th. Chase Elliott looks like a solid option if you’re chasing a victory with him and he’s very reasonably priced on DK in particular.
William Byron and Alex Bowman are intriguing options. They both have a lot of risk starting at 1 and 2 and if either has an accident or issue and drops back it would be devastating. That being said, both are in a position to lead laps and finish near the top of the race and both will have to have a flawless evening in order to pay off. These guys aren’t for the faint of heart. Rickey Stenhouse Jr was a disappointment a few days ago but that looks more like a blip on the radar for a driver in otherwise great form and this should be a rebound spot for him with nice upside. Bubba Wallace is just below a top tier price but with a 38th starting position, he has nowhere to go but up and has nice upside at a very reasonable price.
High risk / high return:
This is tough with the sites able to factor starting positions into prices. If you really want to punt a guy or 2 in order to pay up today, it’s particularly important on DK because salary is really not an issue on FD. None of the really cheap guys look particularly promising. If we go up a little, Custer and DiBenedetto have placement upside but where they are starting makes them risky punt options which is really the best you can hope for unless you play a cheap guy at the bottom who just needs to gain a few spots to see a similar return. Either way, it’s tough to lock in the big guns on DK.
Thank you for reading! Follow us on twitter to stay up to date on all future posts. @GameOnDFS