5.30.20 LOL MSC/MSS Slate

This has been quite the ride so far. As much as we love our LPL teams, we were a bit skeptical of iG dominating GEN and DRX… but absolutely no one thought they would be this bad. Between TheShy’s performances and Puff’s literal inability to communicate in the same language, they certainly won’t be looking too hot going into the split… expect some changes.

Now we’re in the semifinals, and things aren’t exactly calming down. Every 1st game of each series in the MSC (LPL/LCK) is going to be blind pick, so there is no draft.  That means neither team has the option to ban; as soon as they enter champion select, every player has roughly a minute and a half to lock in a champion. They don’t take turns, they just lock in when ready. There are sure to be opportunities here, but if you’re looking to save your money for a serious competition, maybe just wait for the summer splits to begin. 

StatisticFantasy Points*Players drafted as Captain earn 1.5x fantasy point values
Kills+3 Pts
Assists+2 Pts
Deaths-1 Pt
Creep Score+0.02 Pts
10+ K/A Bonus+2 Pts (10 Kills or 10 Assists in a single game)

Teams

StatisticFantasy Points*Teams drafted as Captain earn 1.5x fantasy point values
Turrets+1 Pt
Dragons+2 Pts
Barons+3 Pts
First Blood+2 Pts
Win+2 Pts
Win in Under 30 Minutes Bonus+2 Pts

JDG(-167) V FPX(+120)  (1 AM EST)

StatsJDGFPX
W/L26/1027/13
Avg. Game Length32:4431:47
Dragons/Game2.672.70
Barons/Game.83.73
Turrets/Game7.56.7
K+D/Game2425.9

We get to see a rematch from the LPL semifinals, and it’s sure to be exciting, but we’re not too sure things will go quite as planned. JDG’s performances overall were slightly disappointing. Even though they only dropped a single game to GEN, it was a pretty bad loss, and their victories didn’t always see the greatest scores. JDG’s players were all outscored by their LCK counterparts, even with DRX being knocked out. We still think JDG’s chances of winning are strong, especially now that we’re in a best of 5 situation, but we’re far more skeptical of how points will be distributed. This all gets even worse as the 1st game is BLIND PICK. It honestly wouldn’t be surprising if one or both teams completely messed around in that game and just had fun, so don’t expect that to matter too much. 

JDGKP%KDACS/M
Zoom61.4%6.68.2
Kanavi77.3%5.96.2
Yagao66.5%6.18.2
LokeN69%7.29.8
LvMao71.3%5.21
FPXKP%KDACS/M
Khan57.7%2.87.2
Tian67.9%3.95.1
Doinb73%5.78.5
Lwx72.3%6.59.5
Crisp69.7%5.11

FPX’s roster had some pretty great games, although their scores weren’t a whole lot better than JDG. Their victory against TES was certainly surprising, although it certainly looked like the Wukong/Rumble caught them off guard. Odds are we’ll see Khan again for this series, and his performances have looked pretty good so far in the tournament (unfortunately he never got to shine on Vladimir against T1, but that was moreso a team failure. If they played early game more intelligently his score could have been amazing.)  Both teams are looking pretty similar, although FPX’s performances are looking better than during the LPL playoffs, and their roster doesn’t really have a weak link. That being said, aside from game 1, Kanavi/Yagao/LokeN are still formidable picks and are slightly cheaper than their FPX counterparts. Even Zoom has this issue, so as long as Zoom is a part of a JDG victory and doesn’t get dumpstered by Khan, he might be worthwhile. As long as we don’t see more games that go 30 minutes before a kill, we could see a more traditional LPL matchup here. 

Mid lane has potential here, but there are some other amazing mid lane picks in this slate, so consider going elsewhere for that role. Nothing wrong with Yagao or Doinb by any means, just keep an open mind.

JDG Top Picks:

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FPX Top Picks:
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GEN(+120) V TES(-167)  (4 AM EST)

StatsGENTES
W/L31/1323/14
Avg. Game Length33:3432:44
Dragons/Game2.802.43
Barons/Game.80.76
Turrets/Game7.47.0
K+D/Game20.128.5

Mid lane is sure to be an exciting matchup. Bdd and Knight were arguably the 2 best players in their respective groups, and they have solid teams to back them up. GEN did drop a game versus DRX, but managed to get revenge in the tiebreaker in true LCK fashion (6-1 kill count.) GEN are a strong team, but given TES’s overall strength, things still look good for them. Again, we have another blind pick in game 1, so that’s a bit of a mess. 

GENKP%KDACS/M
Rascal57.8%48.1
Clid74.2%5.15.5
Bdd75.4%6.78.4
Ruler66.3%7.210.5
Life67.1%5.5.9
TESKP%KDACS/M
36958.2%3.57.9
Karsa69.2%3.75.2
Knight76.3%5.38.5
JackeyLove66.2%4.39.3
yuyanjia66.4%2.9.9

TES players are pretty close to FPX in pricing, so they are some of the more expensive in the slate. Knight especially is an expensive mid laner, but he is well worth it. As good as Bdd is, Knight proved himself to be an absolute monster once more… that Leblanc play against DWG was just outrageous. Sure, Yuumi had a lot to do with the success of that play, but it’s questionable if other mid laners in this tournament could have pulled that off regardless. JackeyLove was another fantastic pick, particularly in FD, and the rest of the team is solid. We will say that Karsa wasn’t ideal in a few situations; the 1st slate for DK he served a more supporting role, so if you like TES you should prioritize the carries. GEN saw some great performances out of Rascal, Clid, and Bdd, but don’t expect too much if TES are dominant throughout the series. Since it’s a best of 5, if TES manages to take every game, there are going to be big bonuses for the players considering games not played.

GEN Top Picks:

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TES Top Picks:
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TLN(Yes) V FL(No)  (5 AM EST)

StatsTLNFL
W/L5/15/5
Avg. Game Length30:2032:14
Dragons/Game3.332.10
Barons/Game.83.80
Turrets/Game7.75.9
K+D/Game28.835.6

This is likely to be the most straightforward matchup in the slate. There doesn’t appear to be any blind pick nonsense, and TLN have looked incredibly strong throughout the series. FL’s K+D/G is a similar situation to that of the infamous V5, where most of it comes from their deaths, while TLN have been racking up kills for a little while now in fewer games. FL’s 5 victories in this tournament saw 3 wins during a best of 5 against Machi E-Sports, a team they’ve done well against historically, while TLN has always gotten the best of FL. Upsets are always possible in LoL, but there’s no good reason to believe it’ll happen here.

TLNKP%KDACS/M
Hanabi64.7%6.78.1
River81.2%6.16.2
Candy67.5%7.77.9
Unified51.6%58.8
Kaiwing60.3%7.31.3
FLKP%KDACS/M
Stark52.7%2.67.2
YiJin68.4%2.85.9
Naul47.7%2.17.1
Slayder64.3%38.9
Palette70.2%2.41

The certainty surrounding this matchup explains the expensive pricing of these lesser known players. TLN’s entire roster sits at the top of DK pricing (FD doesn’t include this matchup in their slate) so you’ll need to choose carefully. Hanabi and River especially have had some very reliable scores, making the top and jungle very attractive choices. Candy and Unified aren’t bad either, but considering their costs and the other matchups in the slate, going all in on the most expensive MID and ADC might not end well. If TLN are the only team to win 3-0 then that’s a different story, as those players will get 40 extra points, so if you think the other games are going to be a bit more disastrous (which is possible) then maybe that’s the way to go. Not to mention there’s no guarantee MID and ADC won’t perform against FL this time, so there are a lot of good options. That being said, the top and jungle are more likely the safer options if you choose to include this series in your lineup.  FL’s roster has some decent picks but their chances of performing aren’t high enough to justify prioritizing them. A FL 3-0 would definitely make an interesting contrarian lineup, but don’t hold your breath. 

Quick extra note about Candy and Unified: Unified has had decent performances, but Candy’s best matches were against FL. This might make Candy more attractive, but Unified might not be worth the cost due to his low KP% in the games against FL. 

TLN Top Picks:

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FL Top Picks:
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