We are at Bristol and familiar faces are all over the tops of DK and FD’s pricing algorithms. There may be some values to be had but the favorites are all pretty expensive. This is a day of nailing the mid tiers as several guys can pop off and hopefully we all avoid the wrecks and penalties that sink too many DFS lineups. Good luck and game on.
First of all, below you can see the Draftkings scoring system that is heavily weighted on predicting top finishers, with no captain’s slot or any distinction between picks. The name of this game will be finding lower priced participants that finish well to help afford the more premium guys that are safer bets to show up around the top of the leaderboard. With a solid amount of points being given as a result of place differential, it’s important to pay attention to where racers will be starting in order to find good opportunities. This will be set right before lock so if you play this seriously, you have to be paying attention (or just play on Fanduel haha).
|Place Differential||+/- 1 Pt|
|Fastest Laps||+0.5 Pts|
|Laps Led||+0.25 Pts|
|Finishing Position Scoring|
The largest difference for Fanduel is the lack of scoring for place differential, with points for completing laps instead. This negates the lack of knowledge of where the racers will be starting until just before the contest and helps reward drivers who finish the race over those who give up or say things you probably shouldn’t on stream.
Lineup construction is focused on locking in likely top performers and then finding value plays that will severely outperform their salary expectations. Now that we are back to normal racing, there should be more consistent performances, fewer strange issues, but also the issue of more severe fallout from crashes.
Below we have current betting odds for each driver. These odds are as of 10:00 PM EST on 5/30 and we will look for some value plays relative to their FD & DK pricing.
|Name||Starting Position||Draftkings Salary||Fanduel Salary||William Hill Odds||Bet Online Odds|
|Martin Truex Jr||5||9400||12500||12-1||+1200|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr||16||7400||6200||50-1||+4500|
|John H. Nemechek||18||5500||6400||500-1||+50000|
Kyle Busch should be the mega chalk here as he has been annihilating Bristol. He is also the betting favorite and most expensive guy, so the big question is whether or not you can afford him because everything points to a strong race from him. Joey Logano has had phenomenal recent form and is a candidate to lead a bunch of laps and have a great finishing spot. The only negative for him is lack of upside from starting position but we can overlook that here. Jimmie Johnson and Clint Bowyer share our third favorite spot, given their upside in placement and place differential. We were high on them on Thursday and will be here again.
Alex Bowman, Kurt Busch, and Ryan Blaney are all fantastic values for their prices. Bowman has looked unstoppable at times and Kurt’s track record (hehe) at Bristol is fantastic. All three guys can be expected to finish in the top 10 and bring home great scores at salaries that are a touch down from the big boys.
High risk / high return:
Bubba Wallace again has great upside by starting towards the back and a solid race will give him great place differential. Erik Jones and Ryan Newman are in a similar spot and are too cheap, they are high upside plays. For something more riskier if you need salary relief, guys like Preece or Buescher can be a hail mary play but don’t bet the farm on it.
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