Supermarket Heroes 500 5.31.20

We are at Bristol and familiar faces are all over the tops of DK and FD’s pricing algorithms. There may be some values to be had but the favorites are all pretty expensive. This is a day of nailing the mid tiers as several guys can pop off and hopefully we all avoid the wrecks and penalties that sink too many DFS lineups. Good luck and game on. 

First of all, below you can see the Draftkings scoring system that is heavily weighted on predicting top finishers, with no captain’s slot or any distinction between picks. The name of this game will be finding lower priced participants that finish well to help afford the more premium guys that are safer bets to show up around the top of the leaderboard. With a solid amount of points being given as a result of place differential, it’s important to pay attention to where racers will be starting in order to find good opportunities. This will be set right before lock so if you play this seriously, you have to be paying attention (or just play on Fanduel haha). 

Draftkings Scoring

General
Place Differential+/- 1 Pt
Fastest Laps+0.5 Pts
Laps Led+0.25 Pts
Finishing Position Scoring
1st+46 Pts
2nd+42 Pts
3rd+41 Pts
4th+40 Pts
5th+39 Pts
6th+38 Pts
7th+37 Pts
8th+36 Pts
9th+35 Pts
10th+34 Pts
11th+33 Pts
12th+32 Pts
13th+31 Pts
14th+30 Pts
15th+29 Pts
16th+28 Pts
17th+27 Pts
18th+26 Pts
19th+25 Pts
20th+24 Pts
21st+23 Pts
22nd+22 Pts
23rd+21 Pts
24th+20 Pts
25th+19 Pts
26th+18 Pts
27th+17 Pts
28th+16 Pts
29th+15 Pts
30th+14 Pts
31st+13 Pts
32nd+12 Pts
33rd+11 Pts
34th+10 Pts
35th+9 Pts
36th+8 Pts
37th+7 Pts
38th+6 Pts
39th+5 Pts
40th+4 Pts

The largest difference for Fanduel is the lack of scoring for place differential, with points for completing laps instead. This negates the lack of knowledge of where the racers will be starting until just before the contest and helps reward drivers who finish the race over those who give up or say things you probably shouldn’t on stream. 

Fanduel Scoring

Fastest Laps0.4
Laps Completed0.1
Laps Led0.25
Incidents-.1
1st place43
2nd place40
3rd place38
4th place37
5th place36
6th place35
7th place34
8th place33
9th place32
10th place31
11th place30
12th place29
13th place28
14th place27
15th place26
16th place25
17th place24
18th place23
19th place22
20th place21
21st place20
22nd place19
23rd place18
24th place17
25th place16
26th place15
27th place14
28th place13
29th place12
30th place11
31st place10
32nd place9
33rd place8
34th place7
35th place6
36th place5
37th place4
38th place3
39th place2
40th place1

Lineup construction is focused on locking in likely top performers and then finding value plays that will severely outperform their salary expectations. Now that we are back to normal racing, there should be more consistent performances, fewer strange issues, but also the issue of more severe fallout from crashes.

Below we have current betting odds for each driver. These odds are as of 10:00 PM EST on 5/30 and we will look for some value plays relative to their FD & DK pricing. 

NameStarting PositionDraftkings SalaryFanduel SalaryWilliam Hill OddsBet Online Odds
Kyle Busch712500140007-2+400
Kevin Harvick8122001220017-2+850
Denny Hamlin1011600120007-1+650
Chase Elliott611300130005-1+500
Joey Logano310700117008-1+800
Jimmie Johnson2410200300025-1+2800
Clint Bowyer239800900030-1+2800
Martin Truex Jr594001250012-1+1200
Brad Keselowski191001230010-1+1100
Alex Bowman1188001140020-1+2000
Ryan Blaney486001030010-1+900
Kurt Busch1283001060020-1+2000
Matt Kenseth148100800050-1+4500
Tyler Reddick217900730060-1+6000
William Byron137700930040-1+4500
Bubba Wallace3675005000500-1+50000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr167400620050-1+4500
Christopher Bell3573006000250-1+20000
Matt DiBenedetto97100830040-1+2800
Erik Jones157000960018-1+2000
Ryan Newman176800770075-1+7500
Aric Almirola26700800050-1+5500
Daniel Suarez37650040001500-1+150000
Austin Dillon2063007000150-1+20000
Ty Dillon2961005500?+75000
Ryan Preece3360005000750-1+75000
Chris Buescher1958006800300-1+30000
Corey Lajoie32570030002500-1+250000
Cole Custer2256006600250-1+25000
John H. Nemechek1855006400500-1+50000
Brennan Poole34540025002500-1+250000
JJ Yeley405300100002500-1+250000
BJ McLeod39520020002500-1+250000
Timmy Hill38510020002500-1+250000
Gray Gaulding30500020002500-1+250000
Michael McDowell25490045001000-1+100000
Garrett Smithley31480020002500-1+250000
Quin Houff28470025002500-1+250000
Joey Gase27460020002500-1+250000
Bayley Currey2645002500-1+250000

Top tier: 

Kyle Busch should be the mega chalk here as he has been annihilating Bristol. He is also the betting favorite and most expensive guy, so the big question is whether or not you can afford him because everything points to a strong race from him. Joey Logano has had phenomenal recent form and is a candidate to lead a bunch of laps and have a great finishing spot. The only negative for him is lack of upside from starting position but we can overlook that here. Jimmie Johnson and Clint Bowyer share our third favorite spot, given their upside in placement and place differential. We were high on them on Thursday and will be here again. 

Mid tier: 

Alex Bowman, Kurt Busch, and Ryan Blaney are all fantastic values for their prices. Bowman has looked unstoppable at times and Kurt’s track record (hehe) at Bristol is fantastic. All three guys can be expected to finish in the top 10 and bring home great scores at salaries that are a touch down from the big boys. 

High risk / high return: 

Bubba Wallace again has great upside by starting towards the back and a solid race will give him great place differential. Erik Jones and Ryan Newman are in a similar spot and are too cheap, they are high upside plays. For something more riskier if you need salary relief, guys like Preece or Buescher can be a hail mary play but don’t bet the farm on it. 

Thank you for reading! Follow us on twitter to stay up to date on all future posts. @GameOnDFS

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