This Sunday is the QuickTrip 500 at Atlanta motor speedway. It is a mile and a half long track so it’s a bit safer than last week. There will be 325 laps, leaving plenty of opportunities for lap led numbers. We are always going to look for guys to finish in the top 10, but this track allows us to look for either laps led or place differential equally and we’ll take that into account. Hopefully our guys don’t crash 3 laps in like last time but hey, that’s NASCAR. Good luck and game on.
First of all, below you can see the Draftkings scoring system that is heavily weighted on predicting top finishers, with no captain’s slot or any distinction between picks. The name of this game will be finding lower priced participants that finish well to help afford the more premium guys that are safer bets to show up around the top of the leaderboard. With a solid amount of points being given as a result of place differential, it’s important to pay attention to where racers will be starting in order to find good opportunities. This will be set right before lock so if you play this seriously, you have to be paying attention (or just play on Fanduel haha).
|Place Differential||+/- 1 Pt|
|Fastest Laps||+0.5 Pts|
|Laps Led||+0.25 Pts|
|Finishing Position Scoring|
The largest difference for Fanduel is the lack of scoring for place differential, with points for completing laps instead. This negates the lack of knowledge of where the racers will be starting until just before the contest and helps reward drivers who finish the race over those who give up or say things you probably shouldn’t on stream.
Lineup construction is focused on locking in likely top performers and then finding value plays that will severely outperform their salary expectations. Now that we are back to normal racing, there should be more consistent performances, fewer strange issues, but also the issue of more severe fallout from crashes.
Below we have current betting odds for each driver. These odds are as of 10:00 PM EST on 06/06 and we will look for some value plays relative to their FD & DK pricing.
|Name||Starting Position||Draftkings Salary||Fanduel Salary||William Hill Odds||Bet Online Odds|
|Martin Truex Jr||11th||9600||12200||8-1||+800|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr||22nd||7600||6600||125-1||+10000|
|John H. Nemechek||18th||6000||6000||300-1||+30000|
Kevin Harvick excels on tracks like this and starting 9th gives him an opportunity for some place differential and shot at leading a lot of laps. Martin Truex Jr. and Chase Elliott would be the next guys to target. Both have insane potential to win and lead laps with the only downside being the lack of place differential potential.
Brad Keselowski is absurdly cheap on DK and will possibly be the highest owned player on the slate. His FD salary is more indicative of his fantastic recent form and his starting position and talent make him a prime DFS pick. He is as close to a must play as anyone on DK. Tyler Reddick has a fantastic starting position with upside. He is priced around guys starting in the top 10 and with the same talent as those guys, Reddick has a higher ceiling starting 24th.
High risk / high return:
Erik Jones is a talented driver at an okay starting position, given a huge DFS boost by his price. He has more upside than anyone else in his price range and is a great source of value. Christopher Bell was a fantastic play last week and we are possibly watching him make his rookie of the year case. He has had great success on this track during his time in the Xfinity series and a juicy starting position allows for some great upside.
Thank you for reading! Follow us on twitter to stay up to date on all future posts. @GameOnDFS