QuickTrip 500 06.07.20

This Sunday is the QuickTrip 500 at Atlanta motor speedway. It is a mile and a half long track so it’s a bit safer than last week. There will be 325 laps, leaving plenty of opportunities for lap led numbers. We are always going to look for guys to finish in the top 10, but this track allows us to look for either laps led or place differential equally and we’ll take that into account. Hopefully our guys don’t crash 3 laps in like last time but hey, that’s NASCAR. Good luck and game on. 

First of all, below you can see the Draftkings scoring system that is heavily weighted on predicting top finishers, with no captain’s slot or any distinction between picks. The name of this game will be finding lower priced participants that finish well to help afford the more premium guys that are safer bets to show up around the top of the leaderboard. With a solid amount of points being given as a result of place differential, it’s important to pay attention to where racers will be starting in order to find good opportunities. This will be set right before lock so if you play this seriously, you have to be paying attention (or just play on Fanduel haha). 

Draftkings Scoring

Place Differential+/- 1 Pt
Fastest Laps+0.5 Pts
Laps Led+0.25 Pts
Finishing Position Scoring
1st+46 Pts
2nd+42 Pts
3rd+41 Pts
4th+40 Pts
5th+39 Pts
6th+38 Pts
7th+37 Pts
8th+36 Pts
9th+35 Pts
10th+34 Pts
11th+33 Pts
12th+32 Pts
13th+31 Pts
14th+30 Pts
15th+29 Pts
16th+28 Pts
17th+27 Pts
18th+26 Pts
19th+25 Pts
20th+24 Pts
21st+23 Pts
22nd+22 Pts
23rd+21 Pts
24th+20 Pts
25th+19 Pts
26th+18 Pts
27th+17 Pts
28th+16 Pts
29th+15 Pts
30th+14 Pts
31st+13 Pts
32nd+12 Pts
33rd+11 Pts
34th+10 Pts
35th+9 Pts
36th+8 Pts
37th+7 Pts
38th+6 Pts
39th+5 Pts
40th+4 Pts

The largest difference for Fanduel is the lack of scoring for place differential, with points for completing laps instead. This negates the lack of knowledge of where the racers will be starting until just before the contest and helps reward drivers who finish the race over those who give up or say things you probably shouldn’t on stream. 

Fanduel Scoring

Fastest Laps0.4
Laps Completed0.1
Laps Led0.25
1st place43
2nd place40
3rd place38
4th place37
5th place36
6th place35
7th place34
8th place33
9th place32
10th place31
11th place30
12th place29
13th place28
14th place27
15th place26
16th place25
17th place24
18th place23
19th place22
20th place21
21st place20
22nd place19
23rd place18
24th place17
25th place16
26th place15
27th place14
28th place13
29th place12
30th place11
31st place10
32nd place9
33rd place8
34th place7
35th place6
36th place5
37th place4
38th place3
39th place2
40th place1

Lineup construction is focused on locking in likely top performers and then finding value plays that will severely outperform their salary expectations. Now that we are back to normal racing, there should be more consistent performances, fewer strange issues, but also the issue of more severe fallout from crashes.

Below we have current betting odds for each driver. These odds are as of 10:00 PM EST on 06/06 and we will look for some value plays relative to their FD & DK pricing. 

NameStarting PositionDraftkings SalaryFanduel SalaryWilliam Hill OddsBet Online Odds
Kevin Harvick9th11700140007-2+500
Kyle Busch4th112001350013-2+600
Denny Hamlin10th108001200012-1+1000
Joey Logano3rd105001250015-2+800
Jimmie Johnson15th102001000018-1+1600
Chase Elliott1st9900123006-1+600
Martin Truex Jr11th9600122008-1+800
Kurt Busch12th94001100020-1+1800
Alex Bowman8th91001140015-2+700
Brad Keselowski6th89001320015-2+700
Clint Bowyer5th8700880040-1+4000
Ryan Blaney7th85001050015-1+1500
Tyler Reddick24th8300780060-1+4500
Matt Kenseth19th8100700060-1+7500
William Byron20th7900940030-1+2500
Bubba Wallace23rd77005000750-1+50000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr22nd76006600125-1+10000
Christopher Bell27th74006000200-1+15000
Matt DiBenedetto21st7200860060-1+7500
Ryan Newman17th71007300100-1+10000
Daniel Suarez37th690040002000-1+100000
Aric Almirola2nd6800800075-1+6000
Erik Jones14th6600900030-1+2500
Austin Dillon16th64007500125-1+7500
Ty Dillon28th63004500750-1+100000
Ryan Preece29th620050001000-1+50000
Cole Custer31st61005500200-1+15000
John H. Nemechek18th60006000300-1+30000
Chris Buescher13th59006300300-1+20000
Corey Lajoie25th570045002500-1+250000
Reed Sorenson40th550040002500-1+300000
BJ McLeod39th540030002500-1+300000
Timmy Hill38th530030002500-1+300000
Michael McDowell36th520040002500-1+100000
Quin Houff35th510030002500-1+300000
Garrett Smithley34th500030002500-1+300000
Brennan Poole33rd490040002500-1+25000
Josh Bilicki32nd48003000N/AN/A
JJ Yeley30th460040002500-1+300000
Joey Gase26th450030002500-1+300000

Top tier: 

Kevin Harvick excels on tracks like this and starting 9th gives him an opportunity for some place differential and shot at leading a lot of laps. Martin Truex Jr. and Chase Elliott would be the next guys to target. Both have insane potential to win and lead laps with the only downside being the lack of place differential potential. 

Mid tier: 

Brad Keselowski is absurdly cheap on DK and will possibly be the highest owned player on the slate. His FD salary is more indicative of his fantastic recent form and his starting position and talent make him a prime DFS pick. He is as close to a must play as anyone on DK. Tyler Reddick has a fantastic starting position with upside. He is priced around guys starting in the top 10 and with the same talent as those guys, Reddick has a higher ceiling starting 24th. 

High risk / high return: 

Erik Jones is a talented driver at an okay starting position, given a huge DFS boost by his price. He has more upside than anyone else in his price range and is a great source of value. Christopher Bell was a fantastic play last week and we are possibly watching him make his rookie of the year case. He has had great success on this track during his time in the Xfinity series and a juicy starting position allows for some great upside. 

Thank you for reading! Follow us on twitter to stay up to date on all future posts. @GameOnDFS

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