Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 06.10.20

NASCAR is back on Wednesday at Martinsville speedway, the shortest track in the cup series. It’s short and flat, making it a bit difficult to pass people so we should see some big laps lead numbers from some drivers at the front. Pricing is pretty different on both sites so pay attention to that and keep in mind the different scoring systems. Good luck and game on! 

First of all, below you can see the Draftkings scoring system that is heavily weighted on predicting top finishers, with no captain’s slot or any distinction between picks. The name of this game will be finding lower priced participants that finish well to help afford the more premium guys that are safer bets to show up around the top of the leaderboard. With a solid amount of points being given as a result of place differential, it’s important to pay attention to where racers will be starting in order to find good opportunities. This will be set right before lock so if you play this seriously, you have to be paying attention (or just play on Fanduel haha). 

Draftkings Scoring

General
Place Differential+/- 1 Pt
Fastest Laps+0.5 Pts
Laps Led+0.25 Pts
Finishing Position Scoring
1st+46 Pts
2nd+42 Pts
3rd+41 Pts
4th+40 Pts
5th+39 Pts
6th+38 Pts
7th+37 Pts
8th+36 Pts
9th+35 Pts
10th+34 Pts
11th+33 Pts
12th+32 Pts
13th+31 Pts
14th+30 Pts
15th+29 Pts
16th+28 Pts
17th+27 Pts
18th+26 Pts
19th+25 Pts
20th+24 Pts
21st+23 Pts
22nd+22 Pts
23rd+21 Pts
24th+20 Pts
25th+19 Pts
26th+18 Pts
27th+17 Pts
28th+16 Pts
29th+15 Pts
30th+14 Pts
31st+13 Pts
32nd+12 Pts
33rd+11 Pts
34th+10 Pts
35th+9 Pts
36th+8 Pts
37th+7 Pts
38th+6 Pts
39th+5 Pts
40th+4 Pts

The largest difference for Fanduel is the lack of scoring for place differential, with points for completing laps instead. This negates the lack of knowledge of where the racers will be starting until just before the contest and helps reward drivers who finish the race over those who give up or say things you probably shouldn’t on stream. 

Fanduel Scoring

Place Differential0.5
Laps Completed0.1
Laps Led0.1
1st place43
2nd place40
3rd place38
4th place37
5th place36
6th place35
7th place34
8th place33
9th place32
10th place31
11th place30
12th place29
13th place28
14th place27
15th place26
16th place25
17th place24
18th place23
19th place22
20th place21
21st place20
22nd place19
23rd place18
24th place17
25th place16
26th place15
27th place14
28th place13
29th place12
30th place11
31st place10
32nd place9
33rd place8
34th place7
35th place6
36th place5
37th place4
38th place3
39th place2
40th place1

Lineup construction is focused on locking in likely top performers and then finding value plays that will severely outperform their salary expectations. Now that we are back to normal racing, there should be more consistent performances, fewer strange issues, but also the issue of more severe fallout from crashes.

Below we have current betting odds for each driver. These odds are as of 10:00 PM EST on 6/9 and we will look for some value plays relative to their FD & DK pricing. 

NameStarting PositionDraftkings SalaryFanduel SalaryWilliam Hill OddsBet Online Odds
Jimmie Johnson21125001020020-1+2200
Denny Hamlin1211900120006-1+700
Chase Elliott11115001250015-2+700
Kevin Harvick10112001300012-1+1000
Kyle Busch710700145007-2+400
Martin Truex Jr5103001400011-2+600
Joey Logano39900120008-1+800
Brad Keselowski695001350011-2+550
Kurt Busch992001030022-1+2500
Alex Bowman889001050025-1+3300
Clint Bowyer486001000022-1+1400
Ryan Blaney184001150010-1+1000
Christopher Bell3282007000150-1+12500
Matt Kenseth208000780060-1+5000
Bubba Wallace23780050001000-1+50000
William Byron157600950040-1+3300
Tyler Reddick1474008200200-1+15000
Daniel Suarez3771003500250-1+25000
Matt DiBenedetto1970008000100-1+8000
Ryan Newman1668007000100-1+8000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1767006200200-1+15000
Erik Jones136500900045-1+4000
Aric Almirola26400850040-1+4000
Ty Dillon30620050001000-1+50000
Austin Dillon2261007300150-1+10000
Cole Custer2759006000300-1+15000
Corey Lajoie2558003500500-1+100000
Ryan Preece2857005500750-1+25000
Chris Buescher2456006500300-1+15000
John H. Nemechek1855005500750-1+50000
Reed Sorenson3953003000500-1+50000
Timmy Hill3852003000500-1+50000
Michael McDowell2951004000200-1+50000
Garrett Smithley3550003000500-1+50000
Joey Gase3649003000500-1+50000
Quin Houff3448003000500-1
Brennan Poole3147003000500-1
JJ Yeley26460030001500-1

Top tier: 

Jimmie Johnson sticks out due to the substantial pricing difference between sites, and this makes him a site-specific play in our eyes. He does provide great upside from place differential on DK, but his price is tough to fit in. He has top 10 upside here and is a great play on Fanduel, and if you can afford him, he fits the mold on Draftkings perfectly. It’s hard to look past Brad Keselowski after he led 446/500 laps here last year, and his starting position gives him an opportunity to grab a bunch again today. He is a definite threat to win again and could be among the top scorers if he can get in the lead for a while. In the other Martinsville race last year, Martin Truex Jr. led 464 laps, making him a good pivot off of Keselowski. Either one of those 2 guys is capable of leading a good chunk of this race, so starting off your lineup with one of them could pay big dividends.

Mid tier: 

Another guy that’s much more expensive on Draftkings, Christopher Bell is once again starting near the rear, and he has shown his upside recently with 2 top-10s in his last 4 races. Bell could very well finish with the largest place differential making him a great driver to target, especially on Fanduel where he is so cheap. We’ve already talked about how many laps guys are capable of leading here, and who better to lead than the pole sitter Ryan Blaney? While he doesn’t provide place differential points, he can make up for that by leading a good portion of the race and there is a good chance he stays in the top-5 here. Matt DiBenedetto doesn’t have the best recent form, but he definitely has top-15 to top-10 potential which should be good enough for his price. It’s much more comfortable to fit him in on Draftkings where he is a good bit cheaper though.

High risk / high return: 

To fit in the top guys, we need some value, and we usually look for place differential points down here. Ryan Preece finished 16th and 19th here last year and is starting 28th, giving him a lot of potential fantasy points if he can replicate last year’s results. Another cheap guy with decent track history is Bubba Wallace, who finished 17th and 13th here and is starting at 23rd today. His Draftkings price isn’t great, but Fanduel allows you to plug him in with a couple top guys. Following the history line, Ty Dillon has 2 top-15s in his last 3 appearances here, and his 30th starting position makes him very intriguing for DFS.

Thank you for reading! Follow us on twitter to stay up to date on all future posts. @GameOnDFS

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: