Homestead in June? Usually the last race on the NASCAR schedule, we are instead seeing this track in the middle of the season. There is a lot of history here, but being the last race of the season for the past 18 years, a lot of guys out of Championship contention seemed to give way to those making a push for the top, so this will be a unique Homestead experience. As always, each site went different directions with their pricing, so make sure you take advantage of the value where you can. Good luck and game on!
First of all, below you can see the Draftkings scoring system that is heavily weighted on predicting top finishers, with no captain’s slot or any distinction between picks. The name of this game will be finding lower priced participants that finish well to help afford the more premium guys that are safer bets to show up around the top of the leaderboard. With a solid amount of points being given as a result of place differential, it’s important to pay attention to where racers will be starting in order to find good opportunities. This will be set right before lock so if you play this seriously, you have to be paying attention (or just play on Fanduel haha).
|Place Differential||+/- 1 Pt|
|Fastest Laps||+0.5 Pts|
|Laps Led||+0.25 Pts|
|Finishing Position Scoring|
The largest difference for Fanduel is the lack of scoring for place differential, with points for completing laps instead. This negates the lack of knowledge of where the racers will be starting until just before the contest and helps reward drivers who finish the race over those who give up or say things you probably shouldn’t on stream.
Lineup construction is focused on locking in likely top performers and then finding value plays that will severely outperform their salary expectations. Now that we are back to normal racing, there should be more consistent performances, fewer strange issues, but also the issue of more severe fallout from crashes.
Below we have current betting odds for each driver. These odds are as of 10:00 PM EST on 6/9 and we will look for some value plays relative to their FD & DK pricing.
|Name||Starting Position||Draftkings Salary||Fanduel Salary||William Hill Odds||Bet Online Odds|
|Martin Truex Jr||6||11400||13300||5/1||+450|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr||19||7100||6800||100/1||+12500|
|John H. Nemechek||18||5300||6000||500/1||+30000|
Joe Gibbs cars finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd here last year, so we will be looking for big performances once again from them, specifically Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch. Truex has finished 2nd, 2nd, 3rd here the past 3 years and is in prime position for another top finish today, while Busch not only won here last year, but he also won the Truck Series race yesterday despite starting at the rear due to a penalty. Another JGR car belongs to the pole sitter Denny Hamlin, and while his teammates could outplace him, he can put up enough laps led to still score well enough barring a huge placement drop. He doesn’t have the best history at this track though so there is some risk here, especially since Joey Logano could pass him early and rack up some lead laps of his own. Logano has 5 straight top-6 finishes here and makes for a nice pivot at the top here. Kevin Harvick is the most expensive play of the day, and rightfully so. He has 6 straight top-4 finishes here and it’s not hard to see him doing so again. The one worry I have with him is lead laps as he will need a bunch to pay off his salary even with a high finish, but if anyone can do it, it’s Harvick.
Ryan Blaney doesn’t have the best track history here, but this time he actually has something to race for. He has never been in Championship contention during this race, so he hasn’t really had a reason to go for the winner’s circle, but he should be able to contend today after 4 top-4s in his past 5 races. He provides a nice combination of finishing position and place differential, and all for a fairly affordable price. Tyler Reddick is a fantastic play today as not only does he bring place differential upside starting 24th, he won the Xfinity race here each of the past 2 seasons, so he is definitely comfortable on this track. His low price gives you a lot of room to work with so you can fit in some of the top guys with him. Another great option is Christopher Bell, although it may depend on which site you are playing on. Draftkings has priced him way up, while Fanduel continues to keep him cheap, so it really depends on the rest of your lineup if it makes sense to roster him. Bell has top 15-20 upside every race, and starting at 36th will give him huge place differential points if he can reach that potential. His disappointing finish last week should hopefully drop his ownership a bit, but he has looked great outside of that race and will likely be among the top value plays today barring disaster. Although he doesn’t offer the most place differential points in his price range, Erik Jones is very cheap here and has the most finishing position upside of anyone around him. A top-5 would put him firmly among the top scorers of the day, and did I mention he’s another Joe Gibbs car? Another guy with top-10 upside here is Matt DiBenedetto, who is coming off a 7th place finish. His track history isn’t great, but he has a ton of upside starting 23rd, so he could be an option to round out your lineup from this price range.
High risk / high return:
Whenever we go down here, we are mainly looking for some place differential points as it’s not realistic to expect top finishes from these guys. Cole Custer brings us just that as he has 3 top-20 finishes in his last 5 races, and is starting 35th today. Another top-20 here would make him a great value play and a nice compliment to the expensive drivers you can afford because of him. Ryan Preece is another guy with top-20 upside, although he hasn’t looked toog reat recently outside of a 12th place at Bristol a few weeks ago.He is starting just in front of Custer at 33rd, and provides a similar ceiling, although he is a bit more of a risk. Based on recent results, Michael McDowell may be the most reliable option down here as he is starting 30th and hasn’t finished outside the top-25 since February, with 2 14th place finishes in his past 3 races. Another top-20 is definitely in play and because both sites refuse to raise his price, he could be the top value play if his string of great recent form continues. His track history isn’t the best though, so a high finish isn’t a guarantee today. Aric Almirola isn’t overly cheap, but he is starting 21st and has a very up-and-down track history that has seen him vary between top-10s and top-40s. If that doesn’t sound like a risky GPP play, I don’t know what does.
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