After a somewhat boring race yesterday that only saw 2 somewhat important crashes (Erik Jones’ wreck still stings), we are back at the triangle track once again. The starting positions for this race are based on yesterday’s results, with the 1st-20th finishers having inverted starting positions today, so we can get some great drivers with high place differential upside. The strategy will be the same as it was yesterday where we want good drivers with good equipment, which does make it tough to fit the top guys in. Our usual value plays are starting higher than usual, making them less appealing for DFS, so a balanced build may be necessary today.
First of all, below you can see the Draftkings scoring system that is heavily weighted on predicting top finishers, with no captain’s slot or any distinction between picks. The name of this game will be finding lower priced participants that finish well to help afford the more premium guys that are safer bets to show up around the top of the leaderboard. With a solid amount of points being given as a result of place differential, it’s important to pay attention to where racers will be starting in order to find good opportunities. This will be set right before lock so if you play this seriously, you have to be paying attention (or just play on Fanduel haha).
|Place Differential||+/- 1 Pt|
|Fastest Laps||+0.5 Pts|
|Laps Led||+0.25 Pts|
|Finishing Position Scoring|
The largest difference for Fanduel is the lack of scoring for place differential, with points for completing laps instead. This negates the lack of knowledge of where the racers will be starting until just before the contest and helps reward drivers who finish the race over those who give up or say things you probably shouldn’t on stream.
Below we have current betting odds for each driver. These odds are as of 10:00 PM EST on 6/27 and we will look for some value plays relative to their FD & DK pricing.
|Name||Starting Position||Draftkings Salary||Fanduel Salary||William Hill Odds||Bet Online Odds|
|Martin Truex Jr||15||9800||12500||8/1||+750|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr||4||8100||7700||150/1||+8000|
|John H. Nemechek||24||6100||6500||1000/1||+25000|
This is basically the same race as yesterday, so the notes will not be as in depth today. There are not many good value options, so you may need to go for a balanced build or just pray your cheap guy can stay near the top somehow.
There are a lot of good expensive drivers today because of the starting position inversion. Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin are the obvious top 2 targets here after finishing 1st and 2nd respectively yesterday. This puts them as the 19th and 20th cars today, giving them huge place differential upside combined with winning potential. Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. are 2 other guys starting far back with winning upside so they make for good pivots off of the chalky Harvick and Hamlin. Busch and Truex Jr. are starting 16th and 15th respectively, so they don’t provide as much differential upside, but they have just as much of a chance for a win. Finally, Joey Logano is going to be one of the highest owned drivers here after a wreck has him starting 36th today. Logano could easily finish in the top-5 to top-10, and he has almost as much winning potential as the other guys up here. He is a necessity in cash and could be an all-or-none play for GPPs depending on how risky you feel.
Along with Logano, Erik Jones and Tyler Reddick should be very highly owned today. Jones was the highest owned player yesterday by a fair margin, but he and Reddick crashed and busted a lot of lineups. This has them starting 38th and 30th with top-15 to top-10 upside, which would likely put both in the optimal lineup. Once again, these guys are cash staples and you will have to decide how to handle them in GPPs with their crazy ownership. Yesterday’s pole sitter Aric Almirola looked much better than expected as he ended up leading 61 laps and finishing in 3rd. Starting at 18th gives him a lot of upside at this price and another top-5 could be in the books here. Ty Dillon is a little more expensive than usual, but he is starting far enough back that there is some place differential upside here. He’s not the most appealing play, but he could be used to fill out a lineup to help afford the big guys.
The inverted starting positions really messed up this group of drivers as most of them won’t be able to stay at the top and will likely not score well at all. We are mostly looking for place differential down here, so John H. Nemechek is an enticing option today. His 24th place finish yesterday wasn’t the greatest, but he could definitely finish top-20 and that may be all we need at this price range if the other guys are getting negative place differential points. After Nemechek, it gets iffy down here, so we may just need to find guys that can stay where they start for the placement points. Chris Buescher and Michael McDowell are the best bets here to not drop way back, so they are solid salary relief options today. Staying right around where they start should be good enough at this price assuming the other guys all drop a good amount. The only other guy here that seems to have some potential is Corey Lajoie, but a top-20 isn’t a guarantee for him. Still, when you’re desperate for salary relief, he could fit the bill.
Risky plays:Just like yesterday, these guys could make or break your lineups, so they are GPP only plays and you probably shouldn’t go overboard on them. Kurt Busch is starting 3rd and is a much better driver than the 2 guys starting ahead of him so there is a decent chance he can pass them early. He will need to get the lead early and hold it for a while to rack up enough lead laps to score well though, so he is pretty risky. Teammates Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman both had car issues yesterday, but if they can avoid the same today they should be able to do well. They are both good plays but are down here because of the risk of more car problems today, so keep that in mind.
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