Pocono 350 6.28.20

After a somewhat boring race yesterday that only saw 2 somewhat important crashes (Erik Jones’ wreck still stings), we are back at the triangle track once again. The starting positions for this race are based on yesterday’s results, with the 1st-20th finishers having inverted starting positions today, so we can get some great drivers with high place differential upside. The strategy will be the same as it was yesterday where we want good drivers with good equipment, which does make it tough to fit the top guys in. Our usual value plays are starting higher than usual, making them less appealing for DFS, so a balanced build may be necessary today.

First of all, below you can see the Draftkings scoring system that is heavily weighted on predicting top finishers, with no captain’s slot or any distinction between picks. The name of this game will be finding lower priced participants that finish well to help afford the more premium guys that are safer bets to show up around the top of the leaderboard. With a solid amount of points being given as a result of place differential, it’s important to pay attention to where racers will be starting in order to find good opportunities. This will be set right before lock so if you play this seriously, you have to be paying attention (or just play on Fanduel haha). 

Draftkings Scoring

General
Place Differential+/- 1 Pt
Fastest Laps+0.5 Pts
Laps Led+0.25 Pts
Finishing Position Scoring
1st+46 Pts
2nd+42 Pts
3rd+41 Pts
4th+40 Pts
5th+39 Pts
6th+38 Pts
7th+37 Pts
8th+36 Pts
9th+35 Pts
10th+34 Pts
11th+33 Pts
12th+32 Pts
13th+31 Pts
14th+30 Pts
15th+29 Pts
16th+28 Pts
17th+27 Pts
18th+26 Pts
19th+25 Pts
20th+24 Pts
21st+23 Pts
22nd+22 Pts
23rd+21 Pts
24th+20 Pts
25th+19 Pts
26th+18 Pts
27th+17 Pts
28th+16 Pts
29th+15 Pts
30th+14 Pts
31st+13 Pts
32nd+12 Pts
33rd+11 Pts
34th+10 Pts
35th+9 Pts
36th+8 Pts
37th+7 Pts
38th+6 Pts
39th+5 Pts
40th+4 Pts

The largest difference for Fanduel is the lack of scoring for place differential, with points for completing laps instead. This negates the lack of knowledge of where the racers will be starting until just before the contest and helps reward drivers who finish the race over those who give up or say things you probably shouldn’t on stream. 

Fanduel Scoring

Place Differential0.5
Laps Completed0.1
Laps Led0.1
1st place43
2nd place40
3rd place38
4th place37
5th place36
6th place35
7th place34
8th place33
9th place32
10th place31
11th place30
12th place29
13th place28
14th place27
15th place26
16th place25
17th place24
18th place23
19th place22
20th place21
21st place20
22nd place19
23rd place18
24th place17
25th place16
26th place15
27th place14
28th place13
29th place12
30th place11
31st place10
32nd place9
33rd place8
34th place7
35th place6
36th place5
37th place4
38th place3
39th place2
40th place1

Below we have current betting odds for each driver. These odds are as of 10:00 PM EST on 6/27 and we will look for some value plays relative to their FD & DK pricing. 

NameStarting PositionDraftkings SalaryFanduel SalaryWilliam Hill OddsBet Online Odds
Kyle Busch1611000135007/2+450
Kevin Harvick2010700140004/1+450
Chase Elliott2510400122004/1+1200
Denny Hamlin1910200130004/1+425
Ryan Blaney9100001180010/1+1200
Martin Truex Jr159800125008/1+750
Brad Keselowski1296001140012/1+1100
Joey Logano3694001200014/1+1400
Jimmie Johnson219200960050/1+4000
Clint Bowyer149000940050/1+2800
Christopher Bell178800800075/1+5000
William Byron786001040035/1+2200
Alex Bowman2785001060040/1+3300
Kurt Busch38300980040/1+2500
Ricky Stenhouse Jr481007700150/1+8000
Matt Kenseth1079007400125/1+5000
Matt DiBenedetto87800810075/1+5000
Tyler Reddick307600840075/1+8000
Erik Jones3874001000020/1+2200
Bubba Wallace2273007000200/1+15000
Aric Almirola187200900022/1+1600
Ty Dillon26700060001500/1+50000
Daniel Suarez28680050002500/1+50000
Cole Custer566006900250/1+15000
Chris Buescher1164007500300/1+15000
Ryan Newman663007200150/1+1000
John H. Nemechek24610065001000/1+25000
Austin Dillon260007300150/1+10000
Ryan Preece158006000750/1+30000
Corey Lajoie23560045005000/1+50000
Michael McDowell13550050001500/1+25000
Brennan Poole29530040005000/1+50000
James Davison4052004500+50000
Quin Houff31510030005000/1+50000
JJ Yeley31500030005000/1+50000
Garrett Smithley33490030005000/1+50000
Timmy Hill35480030005000/1+50000
Joey Gase37470030005000/1+25000
BJ McLeod3946003000+50000
Josh Bilicki3245003000+50000

This is basically the same race as yesterday, so the notes will not be as in depth today. There are not many good value options, so you may need to go for a balanced build or just pray your cheap guy can stay near the top somehow.

Top tier: 

There are a lot of good expensive drivers today because of the starting position inversion. Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin are the obvious top 2 targets here after finishing 1st and 2nd respectively yesterday. This puts them as the 19th and 20th cars today, giving them huge place differential upside combined with winning potential. Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. are 2 other guys starting far back with winning upside so they make for good pivots off of the chalky Harvick and Hamlin. Busch and Truex Jr. are starting 16th and 15th respectively, so they don’t provide as much differential upside, but they have just as much of a chance for a win. Finally, Joey Logano is going to be one of the highest owned drivers here after a wreck has him starting 36th today. Logano could easily finish in the top-5 to top-10, and he has almost as much winning potential as the other guys up here. He is a necessity in cash and could be an all-or-none play for GPPs depending on how risky you feel.

Mid tier: 

Along with Logano, Erik Jones and Tyler Reddick should be very highly owned today. Jones was the highest owned player yesterday by a fair margin, but he and Reddick crashed and busted a lot of lineups. This has them starting 38th and 30th with top-15 to top-10 upside, which would likely put both in the optimal lineup. Once again, these guys are cash staples and you will have to decide how to handle them in GPPs with their crazy ownership. Yesterday’s pole sitter Aric Almirola looked much better than expected as he ended up leading 61 laps and finishing in 3rd. Starting at 18th gives him a lot of upside at this price and another top-5 could be in the books here. Ty Dillon is a little more expensive than usual, but he is starting far enough back that there is some place differential upside here. He’s not the most appealing play, but he could be used to fill out a lineup to help afford the big guys.

Low tier:

The inverted starting positions really messed up this group of drivers as most of them won’t be able to stay at the top and will likely not score well at all. We are mostly looking for place differential down here, so John H. Nemechek is an enticing option today. His 24th place finish yesterday wasn’t the greatest, but he could definitely finish top-20 and that may be all we need at this price range if the other guys are getting negative place differential points. After Nemechek, it gets iffy down here, so we may just need to find guys that can stay where they start for the placement points. Chris Buescher and Michael McDowell are the best bets here to not drop way back, so they are solid salary relief options today. Staying right around where they start should be good enough at this price assuming the other guys all drop a good amount. The only other guy here that seems to have some potential is Corey Lajoie, but a top-20 isn’t a guarantee for him. Still, when you’re desperate for salary relief, he could fit the bill.

Risky plays:Just like yesterday, these guys could make or break your lineups, so they are GPP only plays and you probably shouldn’t go overboard on them. Kurt Busch is starting 3rd and is a much better driver than the 2 guys starting ahead of him so there is a decent chance he can pass them early. He will need to get the lead early and hold it for a while to rack up enough lead laps to score well though, so he is pretty risky. Teammates Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman both had car issues yesterday, but if they can avoid the same today they should be able to do well. They are both good plays but are down here because of the risk of more car problems today, so keep that in mind.

Thank you for reading! Follow us on twitter to stay up to date on all future posts. @GameOnDFS

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: