Quaker State 400 07.12.20

We’re back to a 1.5 mile track with 267 laps worth of points, making our strategy this week a little different. There are enough lead laps to go around today so we will most likely need multiple drivers to get a chunk of those points. There is a lot of good value so it will be important to choose whether you are building stars and scrubs or a balanced mid-tier lineup. Both of them are viable options, especially since anything can happen in NASCAR. 

First of all, below you can see the Draftkings scoring system that is heavily weighted on predicting top finishers, with no captain’s slot or any distinction between picks. The name of this game will be finding lower priced participants that finish well to help afford the more premium guys that are safer bets to show up around the top of the leaderboard. With a solid amount of points being given as a result of place differential, it’s important to pay attention to where racers will be starting in order to find good opportunities. This will be set right before lock so if you play this seriously, you have to be paying attention (or just play on Fanduel haha). 

Draftkings Scoring

General
Place Differential+/- 1 Pt
Fastest Laps+0.5 Pts
Laps Led+0.25 Pts
Finishing Position Scoring
1st+46 Pts
2nd+42 Pts
3rd+41 Pts
4th+40 Pts
5th+39 Pts
6th+38 Pts
7th+37 Pts
8th+36 Pts
9th+35 Pts
10th+34 Pts
11th+33 Pts
12th+32 Pts
13th+31 Pts
14th+30 Pts
15th+29 Pts
16th+28 Pts
17th+27 Pts
18th+26 Pts
19th+25 Pts
20th+24 Pts
21st+23 Pts
22nd+22 Pts
23rd+21 Pts
24th+20 Pts
25th+19 Pts
26th+18 Pts
27th+17 Pts
28th+16 Pts
29th+15 Pts
30th+14 Pts
31st+13 Pts
32nd+12 Pts
33rd+11 Pts
34th+10 Pts
35th+9 Pts
36th+8 Pts
37th+7 Pts
38th+6 Pts
39th+5 Pts
40th+4 Pts

The largest difference for Fanduel is the lack of scoring for place differential, with points for completing laps instead. This negates the lack of knowledge of where the racers will be starting until just before the contest and helps reward drivers who finish the race over those who give up or say things you probably shouldn’t on stream. 

Fanduel Scoring

Place Differential0.5
Laps Completed0.1
Laps Led0.1
1st place43
2nd place40
3rd place38
4th place37
5th place36
6th place35
7th place34
8th place33
9th place32
10th place31
11th place30
12th place29
13th place28
14th place27
15th place26
16th place25
17th place24
18th place23
19th place22
20th place21
21st place20
22nd place19
23rd place18
24th place17
25th place16
26th place15
27th place14
28th place13
29th place12
30th place11
31st place10
32nd place9
33rd place8
34th place7
35th place6
36th place5
37th place4
38th place3
39th place2
40th place1

Below we have current betting odds for each driver. These odds are as of 10:00 PM EST on 7/11 and we will look for some value plays relative to their FD & DK pricing. 

NameStarting PositionDraftkings SalaryFanduel SalaryWilliam Hill OddsBet Online Odds
Kevin Harvick311600145004/1+500
Christopher Bell3411200900075/1+5000
Denny Hamlin12109001380013/2+650
Chase Elliott810500125008/1+650
Kyle Busch1101001300011/2+600
Ryan Blaney1198001100012/1+1000
Joey Logano29600117009/1+900
Clint Bowyer1594001020040/1+4000
Martin Truex Jr992001230013/2+800
Brad Keselowski69000113008/1+800
Jimmie Johnson208800300022/1+2500
William Byron218600940030/1+3300
Erik Jones1684001040030/1+2500
Tyler Reddick248200800060/1+6600
Matt Kenseth178000820050/1+5000
Matt DiBenedetto107800860060/1+6600
Kurt Busch77600970025/1+2500
Alex Bowman574001000020/1+1600
Aric Almirola47300980030/1+2800
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1471006500125/1+15000
Bubba Wallace1870007300250/1+25000
Cole Custer2969007700250/1+20000
Ty Dillon33670045001500/1+50000
Austin Dillon1965007200100/1+12500
Daniel Suarez37640050002500/1+25000
Ryan Preece32630055001500/1+50000
Ryan Newman2361007500125/1+15000
Chris Buescher1359007000500/1+10000
Michael McDowell30570060001500/1+50000
Corey Lajoie27550050005000/1+100000
John H. Nemechek2253005500750/1+30000
Timmy Hill38520030005000/1+100000
JJ Yeley36510090005000/1+100000
Joey Gase35500030005000/1+100000
Brennan Poole31490035005000/1+100000
Quin Houff28470030005000/1+100000
Josh Bilicki2646003000
Garrett Smithley2545003000500/1+100000

Top Tier: 

Starting off with the top guys, we immediately see a trio of great drivers starting at the front. Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, and Kevin Harvick are starting 1st, 2nd, and 3rd respectively and are all solid options in a race that allows drivers to rack up lead laps. Busch has the pole so he is the most likely to lead at the beginning, but Harvick has been so fast this year that he very well could take the lead early. Logano is always a threat to jump out in front, but he is probably behind the other 2 for this race in terms of priority. Much like Harvick, Denny Hamlin has been amazing recently and is firmly in play once again today. He is not as likely to lead laps, but his 12th starting position provides some nice placement differential upside if he can contend for the win. Ryan Blaney is starting just ahead of Hamlin and has similar upside today, making him a nice pivot option at the top. Both of these drivers are great options and could be a nice combo if they both finish in the top 5.

Mid Tier: 

When looking for place differential, it’s hard to ignore Christopher Bell who is priced all the way up on Draftkings, but is still reasonably cheap on Fanduel. As long as he avoids crashes/penalties, Bell seems like a top-15 lock every week and when he;s starting 34th, that presents huge potential. Another driver with huge upside starting deep is Tyler Reddick who has similar upside to Bell at a much lower price. Reddick doesn’t have as much upside since he is starting 10 spots further up, but these 2 are fantastic plays every week when they are starting this deep. A little ways down is Cole Custer who is very similar to Bell and Reddick, but he doesn’t really have the same potential. Still, a top-20 from 29th at his price is still great for DFS and he gives you some decent flexibility with good upside. While they don’t have the place differential upside of the others here, Erik Jones and Matt Kenseth, starting 16th and 17th respectively, both have top-10 to maybe even top-5 upside here and are very affordable. They are both great plays on Fanduel where place differential isn’t as important, and they can also be used on Draftkings if you are looking in this range.

Value Tier:

When are Draftkings and Fanduel finally going to raise Michael McDowell’s price? I’m not complaining, I just want to know how much more time I get to lock him in. McDowell is a top-20 machine lately and is starting all the way back at 30th, making him a great play for a low price. Not only does McDowell have 5 top-20s in his last 6 races, he has 2 top-10s in his last 3 and could contend for another one here barring disaster. Ryan Preece and Corey Lajoie also have top-20 potential starting near the back, making them great value plays today as well. Just in front of them is Ryan Newman who finished 9th here last year and could contend for another top-15 which would be just fine for his price.

Risky plays:

Brad Keselowski always feels like a top-5 threat, but he hasn’t been all that consistent recently. Starting in 6th, he will need to see that top-5 or he will hurt your lineups, but he has as much potential as anyone in his price range. Just above Keselowski is Martin Truex Jr. who is great at 1.5 mile tracks, but he also struggled this year, so he isn’t as great of a play as usual here. Still, Truex has the history to make him a threat and a top-5 from 9th would be enough to pay off his salary today.

Thank you for reading! Follow us on twitter to stay up to date on all future posts. @GameOnDFS

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