We’re back to a 1.5 mile track with 267 laps worth of points, making our strategy this week a little different. There are enough lead laps to go around today so we will most likely need multiple drivers to get a chunk of those points. There is a lot of good value so it will be important to choose whether you are building stars and scrubs or a balanced mid-tier lineup. Both of them are viable options, especially since anything can happen in NASCAR.
First of all, below you can see the Draftkings scoring system that is heavily weighted on predicting top finishers, with no captain’s slot or any distinction between picks. The name of this game will be finding lower priced participants that finish well to help afford the more premium guys that are safer bets to show up around the top of the leaderboard. With a solid amount of points being given as a result of place differential, it’s important to pay attention to where racers will be starting in order to find good opportunities. This will be set right before lock so if you play this seriously, you have to be paying attention (or just play on Fanduel haha).
|Place Differential||+/- 1 Pt|
|Fastest Laps||+0.5 Pts|
|Laps Led||+0.25 Pts|
|Finishing Position Scoring|
The largest difference for Fanduel is the lack of scoring for place differential, with points for completing laps instead. This negates the lack of knowledge of where the racers will be starting until just before the contest and helps reward drivers who finish the race over those who give up or say things you probably shouldn’t on stream.
Below we have current betting odds for each driver. These odds are as of 10:00 PM EST on 7/11 and we will look for some value plays relative to their FD & DK pricing.
|Name||Starting Position||Draftkings Salary||Fanduel Salary||William Hill Odds||Bet Online Odds|
|Martin Truex Jr||9||9200||12300||13/2||+800|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr||14||7100||6500||125/1||+15000|
|John H. Nemechek||22||5300||5500||750/1||+30000|
Starting off with the top guys, we immediately see a trio of great drivers starting at the front. Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, and Kevin Harvick are starting 1st, 2nd, and 3rd respectively and are all solid options in a race that allows drivers to rack up lead laps. Busch has the pole so he is the most likely to lead at the beginning, but Harvick has been so fast this year that he very well could take the lead early. Logano is always a threat to jump out in front, but he is probably behind the other 2 for this race in terms of priority. Much like Harvick, Denny Hamlin has been amazing recently and is firmly in play once again today. He is not as likely to lead laps, but his 12th starting position provides some nice placement differential upside if he can contend for the win. Ryan Blaney is starting just ahead of Hamlin and has similar upside today, making him a nice pivot option at the top. Both of these drivers are great options and could be a nice combo if they both finish in the top 5.
When looking for place differential, it’s hard to ignore Christopher Bell who is priced all the way up on Draftkings, but is still reasonably cheap on Fanduel. As long as he avoids crashes/penalties, Bell seems like a top-15 lock every week and when he;s starting 34th, that presents huge potential. Another driver with huge upside starting deep is Tyler Reddick who has similar upside to Bell at a much lower price. Reddick doesn’t have as much upside since he is starting 10 spots further up, but these 2 are fantastic plays every week when they are starting this deep. A little ways down is Cole Custer who is very similar to Bell and Reddick, but he doesn’t really have the same potential. Still, a top-20 from 29th at his price is still great for DFS and he gives you some decent flexibility with good upside. While they don’t have the place differential upside of the others here, Erik Jones and Matt Kenseth, starting 16th and 17th respectively, both have top-10 to maybe even top-5 upside here and are very affordable. They are both great plays on Fanduel where place differential isn’t as important, and they can also be used on Draftkings if you are looking in this range.
When are Draftkings and Fanduel finally going to raise Michael McDowell’s price? I’m not complaining, I just want to know how much more time I get to lock him in. McDowell is a top-20 machine lately and is starting all the way back at 30th, making him a great play for a low price. Not only does McDowell have 5 top-20s in his last 6 races, he has 2 top-10s in his last 3 and could contend for another one here barring disaster. Ryan Preece and Corey Lajoie also have top-20 potential starting near the back, making them great value plays today as well. Just in front of them is Ryan Newman who finished 9th here last year and could contend for another top-15 which would be just fine for his price.
Brad Keselowski always feels like a top-5 threat, but he hasn’t been all that consistent recently. Starting in 6th, he will need to see that top-5 or he will hurt your lineups, but he has as much potential as anyone in his price range. Just above Keselowski is Martin Truex Jr. who is great at 1.5 mile tracks, but he also struggled this year, so he isn’t as great of a play as usual here. Still, Truex has the history to make him a threat and a top-5 from 9th would be enough to pay off his salary today.
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