O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 07.19.20

We have another 1.5 mile track and a ton of laps today, changing up our strategy a bit for this slate. There are 334 laps today, making laps led and fastest laps very important since these drivers can rack up a ton of points from them. We will want to get at least 2 top guys to take advantage of these bonuses as enough fast/lead laps can offset negative place differential if they drop a few spots. There is some great value today as well so a top/bottom build is probably the best way to go.

First of all, below you can see the Draftkings scoring system that is heavily weighted on predicting top finishers, with no captain’s slot or any distinction between picks. The name of this game will be finding lower priced participants that finish well to help afford the more premium guys that are safer bets to show up around the top of the leaderboard. With a solid amount of points being given as a result of place differential, it’s important to pay attention to where racers will be starting in order to find good opportunities. This will be set right before lock so if you play this seriously, you have to be paying attention (or just play on Fanduel haha). 

Draftkings Scoring

General
Place Differential+/- 1 Pt
Fastest Laps+0.5 Pts
Laps Led+0.25 Pts
Finishing Position Scoring
1st+46 Pts
2nd+42 Pts
3rd+41 Pts
4th+40 Pts
5th+39 Pts
6th+38 Pts
7th+37 Pts
8th+36 Pts
9th+35 Pts
10th+34 Pts
11th+33 Pts
12th+32 Pts
13th+31 Pts
14th+30 Pts
15th+29 Pts
16th+28 Pts
17th+27 Pts
18th+26 Pts
19th+25 Pts
20th+24 Pts
21st+23 Pts
22nd+22 Pts
23rd+21 Pts
24th+20 Pts
25th+19 Pts
26th+18 Pts
27th+17 Pts
28th+16 Pts
29th+15 Pts
30th+14 Pts
31st+13 Pts
32nd+12 Pts
33rd+11 Pts
34th+10 Pts
35th+9 Pts
36th+8 Pts
37th+7 Pts
38th+6 Pts
39th+5 Pts
40th+4 Pts

The largest difference for Fanduel is the lack of scoring for place differential, with points for completing laps instead. This negates the lack of knowledge of where the racers will be starting until just before the contest and helps reward drivers who finish the race over those who give up or say things you probably shouldn’t on stream. 

Fanduel Scoring

Place Differential0.5
Laps Completed0.1
Laps Led0.1
1st place43
2nd place40
3rd place38
4th place37
5th place36
6th place35
7th place34
8th place33
9th place32
10th place31
11th place30
12th place29
13th place28
14th place27
15th place26
16th place25
17th place24
18th place23
19th place22
20th place21
21st place20
22nd place19
23rd place18
24th place17
25th place16
26th place15
27th place14
28th place13
29th place12
30th place11
31st place10
32nd place9
33rd place8
34th place7
35th place6
36th place5
37th place4
38th place3
39th place2
40th place1

Below we have current betting odds for each driver. These odds are as of 10:00 PM EST on 7/18 and we will look for some value plays relative to their FD & DK pricing. 

NameStarting PositionDraftkings SalaryFanduel SalaryWilliam Hill OddsBet Online Odds
Kevin Harvick511300145009/2+270
Denny Hamlin7108001330013/2+600
Martin Truex Jr10104001300017/2+750
Chase Elliott810000120006/1+900
Brad Keselowski69700108008/1+1000
Joey Logano99500115008/1+1000
Kyle Busch49300124005/1+600
Christopher Bell3391009000100/1+8000
Jimmie Johnson209000880025/1+2800
Ryan Blaney289001120011/1+3000
Erik Jones2386001000040/1+900
Alex Bowman1284001030030/1+3300
Matt DiBenedetto118300840030/1+3300
Aric Almirola181001060025/1+2200
William Byron188000950040/1+4000
Kurt Busch379001050025/1+2200
Tyler Reddick247800850075/1+8000
Clint Bowyer177700970060/1+5000
Matt Kenseth2276008000100/1+10000
Cole Custer1974008200100/1+10000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1372006000125/1+12500
Bubba Wallace1471007200300/1+40000
Austin Dillon2169007000100/1+10000
Ty Dillon30670050002500/1+150000
Michael McDowell34660055001500/1+100000
Daniel Suarez37640045002500/1+100000
Ryan Newman1563007500125/1+12500
Corey Lajoie36610040005000/1+300000
John H. Nemechek2860006000750/1+50000
Chris Buescher1658006500500/1+20000
Ryan Preece25560045001500/1+150000
BJ McLeod3955003000+400000
Reed Sorenson4053005000/1
Timmy Hill38520030005000/1+300000
JJ Yeley35500030005000/1+400000
Brennan Poole32490035005000/1+300000
Joey Gase31480030005000/1+400000
Gray Gaulding294700+400000
Quin Houff26460030005000/1+400000

Top Tier: 

As usual, we see Kevin Harvick at the top of the slate, and it’s hard not to go to him every week now. Harvick has won here in 3 of his last 5 appearances, with a 2nd and an 8th as well, and he has been on a tear recently with 5 straight top-4s including 2 wins. His starting position is a bit worrying since it will be tough for him to lead early which is important this week, but a top-3 finish is likely, and necessary for his price, so he is in play once again. Whenever we’re at a 1.5 mile track, Martin Truex Jr. always sticks out. Truex has 8 top-10s in his last 10 appearances here and another one would be great at his 10th starting position. Truex had to start at the rear last week despite winning the pole, and he still clawed his way back to a 4th top-10 in 5 races. Another top-10 is likely here and a top-5 is definitely in play as well. Ryan Blaney is starting 2nd and there’s a good chance he can take the early lead and rack up those bonus points. Blaney has finished in the top-8 in 4 of his last 5 tries here and he has the speed to stay in the top-5 and get enough lead laps and fast laps to put up a great score. If you have been playing NASCAR DFS recently, you will notice that Christopher Bell has seen a pretty big price drop, but for seemingly no reason. Bell has 3 straight top-12s and seems to have the highest floor for DFS every week barring disaster. A top-20 to top-15 result is very likely for him if he avoids trouble and from his 33rd starting position, that would make him one of the top plays of the slate once again.

Mid Tier: 

Our pole sitter, Aric Almirola, finds himself in the middle of the pack for fantasy today at a track where it is difficult for cars to pass each other. This makes Almirola a solid play assuming he can keep the lead for a good amount of time and accumulate enough lead laps to make up for the likely negative place differential points. Although he has only finished 9, 20, 8 in his last 3, Almirola had 5 straight top-5s before that and has been one of the best drivers this season. He has 3 straight top-8s here and should be able to extend that streak today barring disaster. Much like Christopher Bell, Erik Jones has a very high floor starting 23rd, but he hasn’t been as consistent recently. In his last 5 races here, Jones has 2 10th place finishes with a trio of 4th places in between, and another one would make him the top scorer of the day. He has huge upside every week but he always seems to find some sort of trouble, so maybe don’t go completely overboard today though. Speaking of huge upside, Tyler Reddick is starting just behind Jones and he is looking for his 4th top-10 finish in a row. Another top-10 here would put him up there among the top scorers of the day and he comes in at a nice discount from the other options in this range. 

Value Tier:

There are a couple of solid value options today that will be necessary to fit in the top options. Michael McDowell is basically a poor man’s Christopher Bell right now with huge place differential upside and a pretty high floor. McDowell has 2 7th place finishes in his last 3 races and all he really needs is a top-25 to pay off his low price. A top-20 is definitely in play for him, making McDowell a great value play today. Just above McDowell is Ty Dillon who has never finished worse than 24th in 7 appearances here. His 30th starting position gives him a ton of upside as well and if he can get a 4th straight top-20 today, Ty will easily pay off his price. Just under those 2 is John Hunter Nemechek who has finished in the top-20 in 5 of his last 7 races and is starting back at 28th. He doesn’t have the same upside as the other drivers here, but he has a solid floor/ceiling combo for his cheap price that allows you to fit multiple top tier drivers in.

Risky plays:

There are a few risky plays this week that have great history here but haven’t been very consistent this year. Jimmie Johnson won 5 times in 8 races here a few years ago, but he only has 1 top-5 in his last 5 tries since. He is starting far enough back that he only really needs a top-10 to pay off which is definitely possible, but he hasn’t been the most consistent recently. The Busch brothers are starting 3rd and 4th today, but neither of them has shown enough to make them appealing options. Kyle has multiple wins here and Kurt has 6 top-10s in a row here, but they are both starting too high to be reliable today. Still, Kyle and Kurt Busch are both decent contrarian plays if you really want to be different today.

Thank you for reading! Follow us on twitter to stay up to date on all future posts. @GameOnDFS

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