Super Start Batteries 400 7.23.2020

Once again we have a Thursday race and we are on another 1.5 mile track. This track rewards good drivers with good equipment, so it may be less appealing to drop down to the super cheap drivers today. We are once again looking for probably 2 Dominators to lead laps here, while filling out the rest of our lineups with place differential upside. There is some solid value once again so it may not be too difficult to fit the top guys in. The MLB season kicks off just before this race so if you are allocating funds there I don’t blame you, but a weekday NASCAR slate is always fun!

First of all, below you can see the Draftkings scoring system that is heavily weighted on predicting top finishers, with no captain’s slot or any distinction between picks. The name of this game will be finding lower priced participants that finish well to help afford the more premium guys that are safer bets to show up around the top of the leaderboard. With a solid amount of points being given as a result of place differential, it’s important to pay attention to where racers will be starting in order to find good opportunities. This will be set right before lock so if you play this seriously, you have to be paying attention (or just play on Fanduel haha). 

Draftkings Scoring

Place Differential+/- 1 Pt
Fastest Laps+0.5 Pts
Laps Led+0.25 Pts
Finishing Position Scoring
1st+46 Pts
2nd+42 Pts
3rd+41 Pts
4th+40 Pts
5th+39 Pts
6th+38 Pts
7th+37 Pts
8th+36 Pts
9th+35 Pts
10th+34 Pts
11th+33 Pts
12th+32 Pts
13th+31 Pts
14th+30 Pts
15th+29 Pts
16th+28 Pts
17th+27 Pts
18th+26 Pts
19th+25 Pts
20th+24 Pts
21st+23 Pts
22nd+22 Pts
23rd+21 Pts
24th+20 Pts
25th+19 Pts
26th+18 Pts
27th+17 Pts
28th+16 Pts
29th+15 Pts
30th+14 Pts
31st+13 Pts
32nd+12 Pts
33rd+11 Pts
34th+10 Pts
35th+9 Pts
36th+8 Pts
37th+7 Pts
38th+6 Pts
39th+5 Pts
40th+4 Pts

The largest difference for Fanduel is the lack of scoring for place differential, with points for completing laps instead. This negates the lack of knowledge of where the racers will be starting until just before the contest and helps reward drivers who finish the race over those who give up or say things you probably shouldn’t on stream. 

Fanduel Scoring

Place Differential0.5
Laps Completed0.1
Laps Led0.1
1st place43
2nd place40
3rd place38
4th place37
5th place36
6th place35
7th place34
8th place33
9th place32
10th place31
11th place30
12th place29
13th place28
14th place27
15th place26
16th place25
17th place24
18th place23
19th place22
20th place21
21st place20
22nd place19
23rd place18
24th place17
25th place16
26th place15
27th place14
28th place13
29th place12
30th place11
31st place10
32nd place9
33rd place8
34th place7
35th place6
36th place5
37th place4
38th place3
39th place2
40th place1

Below we have current betting odds for each driver. These odds are as of 10:00 PM EST on 7/22 and we will look for some value plays relative to their FD & DK pricing. 

NameStarting PositionDraftkings SalaryFanduel SalaryWilliam Hill OddsBet Online Odds
Kevin Harvick111500140004/1+450
Chase Elliott11110001340017/2+650
Martin Truex Jr5106001270018/1+700
Denny Hamlin10102001300015/2+800
Ryan Blaney499001100013/2+600
Kyle Busch897001200013/2+1000
Brad Keselowski795001160012/1+1000
Joey Logano293001140012/1+1200
Erik Jones2190001000028/1+2800
Jimmie Johnson208900900030/1+3300
Aric Almirola387001080028/1+1600
Alex Bowman685001030028/1+2000
Tyler Reddick238300880035/1+3300
Christopher Bell228100800035/1+8000
Kurt Busch980001020022/1+2500
William Byron157800850050/1+5000
Matt DiBenedetto127700830040/1+5000
Clint Bowyer197500960040/1+5000
Cole Custer247300750075/1+8000
Austin Dillon167200820060/1+6600
Ricky Stenhouse Jr2570007100100/1+12500
Matt Kenseth146900770075/1+7500
John H. Nemechek3068006700750/1+15000
Ryan Newman1866007200125/1+6000
Ty Dillon36650050002000/1+50000
Bubba Wallace1763007000300/1+25000
Michael McDowell27620055002000/1+75000
Daniel Suarez37610050002500/1+50000
Chris Buescher1359006300500/1+15000
Ryan Preece35580045001500/1+30000
Corey Lajoie31570045005000/1+100000
Reed Sorenson39550030005000/1+100000
JJ Yeley28530030005000/1+100000
Brennan Poole29520040005000/1+100000
BJ McLeod40500030005000/1+100000
Timmy Hill38490030005000/1+100000
Joey Gase34480030005000/1+100000
Josh Bilicki33470030005000/1+100000
Garrett Smithley26460030005000/1+100000
Quin Houff32450030005000/1+100000

Top Tier: 

By now everyone knows to look for Kevin Harvick and today is no different. Harvick has the pole and should be able to lead a ton of laps and finish in the top-5 making him potentially the top scorer of the slate. When looking at the top we usually look for guys that can lead laps, but we also see some place differential upside here as well from Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin. They are starting 11th and 10th respectively and can both easily finish in the top-5 along with Harvick today. Hamlin is the defending champion and Elliott has 3 straight top-4s here, so both of them are firmly in play today. While he is starting a bit forward at 4th, Ryan Blaney has been the fastest driver this season and he could easily take the lead for a bit in this race. Harvick can’t reasonably lead every lap, so Blaney is the most likely to take the lead from him eventually.

Mid Tier: 

Our DFS darling has seen a price drop as Christopher Bell has finally earned enough points to no longer start in the mid 30s every race. This makes him a little less appealing for DFS, but he is starting 22nd so there is some upside still.A top-15 is always in play for Bell and he is cheap enough now that he is still playable from this starting position. Just behind Bell starting 23rd is Tyler Reddick who has also shown big upside this season. Reddick has 4 straight top-10s and another one here would make him one of the top scorers of the day. Erik Jones also has top-10 potential in this range and he is starting right alongside the other two at 21st. Jones has 4 straight top-7s here so it’s hard to not look toward him today. Clint Bowyer and Jimmie Johnson are also starting decently far back at 19th and 20th, and both of them have top-10 upside as well. They aren’t as appealing as the other 3 drivers mentioned, but are still worth a look to round out your lineup.

Value Tier:

Ty Dillon is starting all the way back at 36th and, assuming he doesn’t crash again, should be good for a top-20 finish. He is very cheap today and affords you a lot of space for the top guys today. Ryan Preece also has top-20 upside from his 35th starting spot, although he isn’t as safe as Dillon. Still, both of them are great value options today which is important when the most expensive driver is also the best pick. John Hunter Nemechek doesn’t have the same safety/upside as the others here, but he is starting 30th and has won an Xfinity race here in the past. This is his Cup Series debut here so we’ll have to see if he can translate that success over and crush value today. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is only starting 25th, but he has 8 top-20s in his last 9 appearances here, so there is definitely some upside there. He isn’t as appealing as the others here, but could be serviceable if you need to go there.

Risky plays:

Martin Truex Jr. is always in play at 1.5 mile tracks, but he is starting 5th which isn’t the best for us. He will need to stay in the top-5 and potentially lead some laps to be among the top scorers depending on how the rest of the field ends up. He is definitely capable of that, but his upside is limited here so he isn’t necessarily the best option today. Joey Logano is a solid pivot off Harvick if you really want to be different today. If Harvick gets in trouble early, Logano should be able to hold the lead for a while and could be among the top scorers if he leads a bunch and stays in the top-5. It’s usually never a good idea to bet against Harvick, but anything can happen in NASCAR.

Thank you for reading! Follow us on twitter to stay up to date on all future posts. @GameOnDFS

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