Once again we have a Thursday race and we are on another 1.5 mile track. This track rewards good drivers with good equipment, so it may be less appealing to drop down to the super cheap drivers today. We are once again looking for probably 2 Dominators to lead laps here, while filling out the rest of our lineups with place differential upside. There is some solid value once again so it may not be too difficult to fit the top guys in. The MLB season kicks off just before this race so if you are allocating funds there I don’t blame you, but a weekday NASCAR slate is always fun!
First of all, below you can see the Draftkings scoring system that is heavily weighted on predicting top finishers, with no captain’s slot or any distinction between picks. The name of this game will be finding lower priced participants that finish well to help afford the more premium guys that are safer bets to show up around the top of the leaderboard. With a solid amount of points being given as a result of place differential, it’s important to pay attention to where racers will be starting in order to find good opportunities. This will be set right before lock so if you play this seriously, you have to be paying attention (or just play on Fanduel haha).
|Place Differential||+/- 1 Pt|
|Fastest Laps||+0.5 Pts|
|Laps Led||+0.25 Pts|
|Finishing Position Scoring|
The largest difference for Fanduel is the lack of scoring for place differential, with points for completing laps instead. This negates the lack of knowledge of where the racers will be starting until just before the contest and helps reward drivers who finish the race over those who give up or say things you probably shouldn’t on stream.
Below we have current betting odds for each driver. These odds are as of 10:00 PM EST on 7/22 and we will look for some value plays relative to their FD & DK pricing.
|Name||Starting Position||Draftkings Salary||Fanduel Salary||William Hill Odds||Bet Online Odds|
|Martin Truex Jr||5||10600||12700||18/1||+700|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr||25||7000||7100||100/1||+12500|
|John H. Nemechek||30||6800||6700||750/1||+15000|
By now everyone knows to look for Kevin Harvick and today is no different. Harvick has the pole and should be able to lead a ton of laps and finish in the top-5 making him potentially the top scorer of the slate. When looking at the top we usually look for guys that can lead laps, but we also see some place differential upside here as well from Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin. They are starting 11th and 10th respectively and can both easily finish in the top-5 along with Harvick today. Hamlin is the defending champion and Elliott has 3 straight top-4s here, so both of them are firmly in play today. While he is starting a bit forward at 4th, Ryan Blaney has been the fastest driver this season and he could easily take the lead for a bit in this race. Harvick can’t reasonably lead every lap, so Blaney is the most likely to take the lead from him eventually.
Our DFS darling has seen a price drop as Christopher Bell has finally earned enough points to no longer start in the mid 30s every race. This makes him a little less appealing for DFS, but he is starting 22nd so there is some upside still.A top-15 is always in play for Bell and he is cheap enough now that he is still playable from this starting position. Just behind Bell starting 23rd is Tyler Reddick who has also shown big upside this season. Reddick has 4 straight top-10s and another one here would make him one of the top scorers of the day. Erik Jones also has top-10 potential in this range and he is starting right alongside the other two at 21st. Jones has 4 straight top-7s here so it’s hard to not look toward him today. Clint Bowyer and Jimmie Johnson are also starting decently far back at 19th and 20th, and both of them have top-10 upside as well. They aren’t as appealing as the other 3 drivers mentioned, but are still worth a look to round out your lineup.
Ty Dillon is starting all the way back at 36th and, assuming he doesn’t crash again, should be good for a top-20 finish. He is very cheap today and affords you a lot of space for the top guys today. Ryan Preece also has top-20 upside from his 35th starting spot, although he isn’t as safe as Dillon. Still, both of them are great value options today which is important when the most expensive driver is also the best pick. John Hunter Nemechek doesn’t have the same safety/upside as the others here, but he is starting 30th and has won an Xfinity race here in the past. This is his Cup Series debut here so we’ll have to see if he can translate that success over and crush value today. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is only starting 25th, but he has 8 top-20s in his last 9 appearances here, so there is definitely some upside there. He isn’t as appealing as the others here, but could be serviceable if you need to go there.
Martin Truex Jr. is always in play at 1.5 mile tracks, but he is starting 5th which isn’t the best for us. He will need to stay in the top-5 and potentially lead some laps to be among the top scorers depending on how the rest of the field ends up. He is definitely capable of that, but his upside is limited here so he isn’t necessarily the best option today. Joey Logano is a solid pivot off Harvick if you really want to be different today. If Harvick gets in trouble early, Logano should be able to hold the lead for a while and could be among the top scorers if he leads a bunch and stays in the top-5. It’s usually never a good idea to bet against Harvick, but anything can happen in NASCAR.
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