7.31.20 MLB Main Slate

Basketball is back but the MLB is still limping along despite Manfred’s best efforts. There are a few teams playing today that have so far avoided the plague and we have decent contests on both sites. There are a few good pitchers and a bunch of bad ones so we should be able to see a lot of high scoring teams. Good luck and game on. 

DraftKings uses this scoring:

Hitters
Single+3 Pts
Double+5 Pts
Triple+8 Pts
Home Run+10 Pts
Run Batted In+2 Pts
Run+2 Pts
Base on Balls+2 Pts
Hit By Pitch+2 Pts
Stolen Base+5 Pts
Pitchers
Inning Pitched+2.25 Pts
Strikeout+2 Pts
Win+4 Pts
Earned Run Allowed-2 Pts
Hit Against-0.6 Pts
Base on Balls Against-0.6 Pts
Hit Batsman-0.6 Pts
Complete Game+2.5 Pts
Complete Game Shutout+2.5 Pts
No Hitter+5 Pts

Fanduel uses the following:

Hitters
Single+3 Pts
Double+6 Pts
Triple+9 Pts
Home Run+12 Pts
Run Batted In+3.5 Pts
Run+3.2 Pts
Base on Balls+3 Pts
Hit By Pitch+3 Pts
Stolen Base+6 Pts
Pitchers
Inning Pitched+3 Pts
Strikeout+3 Pts
Win+6 Pts
Earned Run Allowed-3 Pts
Quality Start4 Pts

Red Sox(+175) V Yankees(-205) 7:05 EST

PitcherDK $FD $ERAWHIPL wOBAR wOBA
Ryan Weber$5,400$5,5005.091.38.385.270
Jordan Montgomery$7,800$6,8006.751.75.217.587

Ryan Weber sucks and he is facing the Yankees, this game should be high scoring and both offenses are stackable. Yankees lefties have the platoon advantage but everyone is playable against a loser like Weber.

Jordan Montgomery had high hopes at one point but Tommy John surgery derailed his career. He looked okay in summer camp but he’s a lefty facing the Red Sox. Christian Vazquez has good numbers against him in a limited sample and is hot at the plate. 

Mets(+120) V Braves (-141) 7:10 EST

PitcherDK $FD $ERAWHIPL wOBAR wOBA
Rick Porcello$7,000$6,5005.521.39.346.330
Sean Newcomb$6,800$6,0003.161.32.302.297

Porcello sucks, stack the Braves. Freeman and company are all playable. 

Sean Newcomb threw a lot of balls in his debut and only recorded 1 strikeout. He’s an okay pitcher but not for fantasy purposes. Lefties hit him slightly better but the Mets are not a target for us. 

Reds(-155) V Tigers(+130) 7:10 EST

PitcherDK $FD $ERAWHIPL wOBAR wOBA
Luis Castillo$8,800$10,1003.401.14.308.270
Spencer Turnbull$8,100$7,8004.611.44.347.308

Luis Castillo just faced the Tigers and recorded 11 strikeouts. As long as he flashes the same command and velocity, he could very well do it again here. 

Spencer Turnbull recorded 8 strikeouts against the Reds last week and, like Castillo, can seemingly do it again. We don’t have as much faith in him repeating as we do with Castillo, but he’s worth a look. 

Rays(-210) V Orioles (+175) 7:35 EST

PitcherDK $FD $ERAWHIPL wOBAR wOBA
Blake Snell$10,800$9,5004.291.27.374.286
Alex Cobb$4,000$6,00010.951.86.399.601

Snell is only expected to go 3 or 4 innings here. He looked good in his debut but we don’t know how quickly he will show fatigue. He has no chance at a win and his limited innings makes him  too risky. 

Alex Cobb was an ace when he was on the Rays and has been mostly injured since. He handled the Red Sox in his first appearance and the Rays are a step down in terms of talent. He should have another strong start if his command is there, on route to making him a top trade target for contending teams this year. 

White Sox(-180) V Royals(+155) 8:05 EST

PitcherDK $FD $ERAWHIPL wOBAR wOBA
Dallas Keuchel$7,300$7,0003.751.37.268.339
Kris Bubic$4,0002.301.01

Dallas Keuchel fooled some people by looking competent in his debut but he does know how to pitch, despite his dwindling skills. Whit Merrifield is another strong option but we don’t feel great about going with a full out stack. 

Kris Bubic is a high A prospect pitcher who seems to be lost and in the Majors for some reason. He’s a lefty that should be overpowered by the White Sox offense, but he had to have enough talent to earn this opportunity. Anderson, Abreu, Eloy, etc are all playable. 

Padres(-103) V Rockies(-114) 8:10 EST

PitcherDK $FD $ERAWHIPL wOBAR wOBA
Garret Richards$6,500$6,1008.311.85.304.650
Jon Gray$7,500$6,7003.841.35.345.302

Garret Richards was great in his debut and we love him but his first time in Coors is more likely to go poorly for him. We never like pitching here and Richards is no exception. Rockies lefties are in play.

Jon Gray did not look like himself in his debut and was missing the zone a bit. The Padres are a mostly right handed team which is good for Gray, but this is a matchup that definitely favors hitting. Wil Myers looks like a top bat. 

Indians (-124) V Twins(+107) 8:10 EST

PitcherDK $FD $ERAWHIPL wOBAR wOBA
Mike Clevinger$10,000$9,8002.711.06.282.236
Randy Dobnak$6,000$6,1001.591.13.183.346

Clevinger is arguably the most talented arm going today, but the Twins offense has looked unstoppable (except last night). There are talented arms in better spots than this but he is a risky arm with massive upside. 

Randy Dobnak looked okay last time out but the Indians offense should be well positioned to handle him. Santana and Lindor both swing well form the left side of the plate and are a good combo to look at. 

Pirates(+163) V Cubs(-190) 8:15 EST

PitcherDK $FD $ERAWHIPL wOBAR wOBA
Trevor Williams$6,300$6,6005.381.41.393.319
Yu Darvish$10,500$9,1003.981.10.320.266

Trevor Williams is not a great pitcher and the Cubs’ offense has some boppers. The only positive here for Williams is that there are strong winds blowing towards home plate that should keep the ball in the park.

Yu Darvish is expensive but he may be worth the price today. He was iffy in his debut but the strikeout stuff was there. The Pirates look like crap and the winds blowing in makes it easier to trust him as that should help limit any damage.  

Astros(-177) V Angels(+150) 9:10 EST

PitcherDK $FD $ERAWHIPL wOBAR wOBA
Lance McCullers Jr.$9,000$9,0003.861.17.258.318
Matt Andriese$5,800$6,2005.261.40.312.321

McCullers has missed a lot of time with injuries but he looked like he hasn’t missed a beat in his first start. The Angels are a disappointing offense and Trout is on paternity leave so this isn’t the worst time to target them. Upton has hit him well back in the day but this is not a fun spot to target. 

Matt Andriese is starting for the first time in years but has looked good as a long reliever. The Astros are a scary offense and we are certainly avoiding him in this spot (we aren’t sure why he’d ever be considered tbh). Astros bats are all playable and righties actually have the better numbers. 

Rangers(-148) V Giants(+128) 9:10 EST

PitcherDK $FD $ERAWHIPL wOBAR wOBA
Mike Minor$9,200$8,7003.591.24.298.301
Logan Webb$6,100$6,2005.221.46.302.380

Mike Minor is off to a good start and gets a very nice matchup here against the Giants. There are big winds blowing out to center field and that is a little scary if you are targeting him. He has great upside but understand the risk here given the environment. 

Logan Webb is…..who is Logan Webb? He’s a loser who actually did pretty decently in his last start against the Dodgers but that’s largely because he does better against lefties and he got a bit lucky with getting out of jams. He doesn’t have strikeout stuff but the better bats on the Rangers are lefties. Look for righties to have a shot at swinging for the fences, aided by strong winds. 

Athletics(-195) V Mariners(+170) 9:40 EST

PitcherDK $FD $ERAWHIPL wOBAR wOBA
Sean Manaea$9,600$7,5001.210.78.245.212
Taijuan Walker$5,200$5,7003.491.311.312

Sean Manaea threw a lot of strikes and got hit up in his first start. He is normally a good pitcher but he does not look like himself yet and there is potential here for some bats. Kyle Lewis has been phenomenal so far and is a great option. 

Taijuan Walker has a 13.5 ERA so far after years of injuries and this season the team will be more focused on keeping him healthy than actually performing well in a throw away season. Athletics bats are an option and Olson could go yard. 

Dodgers(-143) V Diamondbacks(+123) 9:40 EST

PitcherDK $FD $ERAWHIPL wOBAR wOBA
Tony Gonsolin$8,3002.921.02.250.255
Zac Gallen$8,700$8,0002.811.23.287.288

Gonsolin is probably just an opener and serves no purpose. D-Backs bats are an okay option but there are better options.

If Zac Gallen has better command here and keeps walks to a minimum, he will be able to have a good day. Unfortunately, he is facing a strong Dodgers offense that is lefty heavy. We are calling this neutral and not really targeting either side. 

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