7.31.2020 NBA Main Slate

After a fun small slate, we have a regular 6-gamer today with a lot of interesting lineups. There are a good number of players out today for various reasons, so we get some good value from guys thrust into larger roles. This is the first time we are seeing a lot of these teams’ new lineups so cash games probably aren’t all that safe just yet, but this slate should be more forgiving than yesterday’s 2-gamer.

For NBA DFS, high-volume scorers generally have the highest ceiling as a hot shooting night can lead to a ton of points. For safety purposes, we want to look for players that can stuff the stat sheet as an off shooting night won’t hurt them too much if they are racking up peripherals. For GPP lineups, you will generally want a mix of both as expecting your entire lineup to shoot well isn’t realistic, but you still want to take advantage of those ceilings. For cash games, you don’t really need that ceiling so it is usually best to get all-around players.

Draftkings Scoring

Per Hole Scoring
Point+1 Pt
Made 3pt Shot+0.5 Pts
Rebound+1.25 Pts
Assist+1.5 Pts
Steal+2 Pts
Block+2 Pts
Turnover-0.5 pts
Double-Double{Max 1 Per Player: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals}+1.5 Pts
Triple-Double{Max 1 Per Player: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals}+3 Pts

Fanduel’s scoring system is very similar but they reward defense more and do not give out bonuses for 3PT made, double-doubles, or triple-doubles. The biggest difference between the sites will be the player’s salary rather than the scoring system, so you shouldn’t worry about the scoring all that much. Players will score well on both sites if they have a good game, so don’t worry about the bonuses too much.

Fanduel Scoring

3-Point Shot Made (3P)1
Assists (A)1.5
Blocks (B)3
Field Goal Made (FG)2
Free Throw Made (FT)1
Rebounds (R)1.2
Steals (S)3
Turnovers (T)-1

Listed below are the average Fanduel fantasy points allowed by each team to each position. We want to target the opposing players of the teams that allow the most points, especially when there are teams that allow significantly more points than the others. For example, the Rockets and Trail Blazers allow significantly more fantasy points to Power Forwards than the other teams tonight.

Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game vs Position
TeamTotalPGSGSFPFC
WAS234.149.44342.545.354.4
POR23248.44240.847.154.3
HOU23146.943.741.647.551.9
MEM230.246.743.941.745.152.8
PHO22746.742.440.844.252.9
SA226.447.342.940.744.950.8
BKN224.548.140.439.442.654.8
DAL220.74540.741.243.451
SAC219.946.642.840.140.849.5
MIL219.545.940.438.943.151.6
ORL218.945.740.739.545.248.2
BOS214.543.640.837.843.349.5

PG:

Not only have the Wizards given up the most fantasy points to Point Guards this season, they will be without a handful of key players today. This makes Ricky Rubio a great play tonight in a game that should allow the Suns to rack up fantasy points unless they blow Washington out too early. Ja Morant gets the 2nd easiest matchup tonight and with Tyus Jones out, the Grizzlies are planning on playing him even more than the 30 minutes he averaged this season. This should allow him to crush value and prove that he still deserves the Rookie of the Year award. George Hill is being thrust into the starting lineup today due to Bledsoe and Connaughton both being out, but his price was set before that news was announced. Hill should be able to easily pay off his low price tag and is one of the top value options of the slate. Be wary though as the Celtics are a very stingy defensive team and they allow the fewest FP to opposing PG’s, so maybe don’t go too overboard here. Dejounte Murray and Derrick White have been starting together during the Spurs’ scrimmages as they need to make up for the loss of Aldridge. Both players are in great spots to hit value, with Murray being the safer option of the 2 and White having the higher ceiling. 

SG: 

The Brooklyn Nets are coming into today with a strong lack of talented players due to various reasons. This makes Caris LeVert really the only scoring option tonight and he has been able to step up when needed this season. LeVert is a bit expensive today, but he will have to do everything for the Nets if they want to remain competitive here. With Bledsoe and Connaughton out, Khris Middleton sees a huge usage bump of over 4%. Whilte Boston is a great defensive team, SG is the position they struggle with most compared to the rest of the teams today, so Middleton should be in a good spot to put up a great score today. While their PG’s are solid, the Spurs are DeMar DeRozan’s team with Aldridge out. DeRozan isn’t as flashy as the other options around him today, but he should be one of the safest SG options today with a chance to be among the highest scorers. We already know that the Wizards are terrible and they are now missing a bunch of players, so Devin Booker should be able to feast on them today. Booker loves taking advantage of fast-paced games and this game should have almost 0 defense on both sides. Once again, as long as the game remains somewhat competitive, he should be able to easily hit value. Luka Doncic gets a juicy matchup with a Houston team that bleeds fantasy points but can still keep the game close. Doncic has crushed Houston in their last 2 matchups and he is one of the top options to pay up for today. C.J. McCollum isn’t as flashy as these other options, but he gets the best matchup of the day and he was red hot before the break. Lillard may be a bit limited as he is coming off a foot injury so McCollum may need to pick up some of the scoring load.

SF: 

With the Suns’ usual SF in Oubre out today, Mikal Bridges should step into the starting lineup and he has looked fantastic in their buble scrimmages so far. Bridges also gets the best SF matchup of the slate, so he should be able to crush value here. Danuel House is also starting due to an injury for the Rockets, and his low price means he won’t have to do much to pay it off. House gets a good matchup and should be able hit value easily tonight if you wanted to pay down at SF. Much like Caris LeVert, Troy Brown comes into today as the primary scoring threat for a depleted Wizards team. Brown isn’t the most consistent player, but he was great earlier this season when Beal was out, so look for him to be a great value play today. Tim Hardaway Jr. gets a solid matchup against the Rockets, but he is the 3rd option for his team so he is more of a GPP play today. Hardaway has had very up and down games against Houston so it really depends on how hot his shooting is today. If you want to pay up at SF, Giannis Antetokounmpo sees a decent usage increase with Milwaukee’s injuries and he has been great against the Celtics in his career. It’s tough to stomach the huge salary, but no one has been safer than Giannis this season.

PF:

Kristaps Porzingis comes in as the most expensive PF option, but he also gets the best matchup here. Porzingis has broken 50 FP in both games against the Rockets since joining Dallas, and he has a good chance to do so again in a close matchup. Alongside Troy Brown, Rui Hachimura is the other primary option for the Wizards today. Hachimura has had his ups and downs in his rookie season, but he will have to do a bit of everything today and he has looked good in their scrimmages so far. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke get the 2nd best matchup, and both of them seem fairly underpriced today. JJJ has a very high ceiling and his price is so low due to an injury before the break, while Clarke is one of the better bench bigs in the league. Both of them should be able to easily pay off their low prices. Marvin Bagley and Alex Len are both out tonight for the Kings, so Nemanja Bjelica and Richaun Holmes will start in their place. Both players are way too cheap and are fantastic options here. Both players have played great when starting this season so they should have no trouble hitting and surpassing value.

C:

Nikola Vucevic gets the dream matchup for DFS: a Center facing the Nets. The Nets have always been destroyed by opposing bigs and now they have even fewer players on their team for Vuc to destroy.With Isaac and Fultz limited today, Vucevic should be able to feast on the lowly Nets here. DeAndre Ayton gets another great matchup against the Wizards who are also lacking bodies today. Ayton has been fantastic when healthy/not suspended this season and, along with pretty much everyone on his team, he should be able to crush the Wizards. With LaMarcus Aldridge out, Jakob Poeltl has usually been one of the players to step up. He is a great value play but there is some worry about playing time as Greg Popovich has been known to not give him enough minutes to pay off his salary. Still, Poeltl is in a good spot and should hit value if there is no funny business here. Moritz Wagner will be asked to step up today in the absence of a couple key Washington players, and he is one of their few players that can actually score well. Wagner isn’t very consistent but he doesn’t need to do all that much to pay off his low price. Jonas Valanciunas gets a great matchup and he has looked fantastic in Memphis’ scrimmages. JoVal might not be as appealing as some of the options around him, but he has been very consistent this season and should be able to easily hit value once again here.

If you have any questions or need strategy help, feel free to hop in the Premium Discord and ask away.

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