08.01.20 NBA Main Slate

Well that was a crazy day. Yesterday actually had the highest average team points scored in the history of the NBA and we saw multiple bench guys put up big numbers while some stars struggled in their return, so it was a very interesting slate to say the least. Hopefully as the players get back in the swing of things we see their play get back where it should be, but until then it may be best to play lighter than usual. We have some important injury news to wait on today so stay tuned-in to the Discord to stay on top of things. 

For NBA DFS, high-volume scorers generally have the highest ceiling as a hot shooting night can lead to a ton of points. For safety purposes, we want to look for players that can stuff the stat sheet as an off shooting night won’t hurt them too much if they are racking up peripherals. For GPP lineups, you will generally want a mix of both as expecting your entire lineup to shoot well isn’t realistic, but you still want to take advantage of those ceilings. For cash games, you don’t really need that ceiling so it is usually best to get all-around players.

Draftkings Scoring

Per Hole Scoring
Point+1 Pt
Made 3pt Shot+0.5 Pts
Rebound+1.25 Pts
Assist+1.5 Pts
Steal+2 Pts
Block+2 Pts
Turnover-0.5 pts
Double-Double{Max 1 Per Player: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals}+1.5 Pts
Triple-Double{Max 1 Per Player: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals}+3 Pts

Fanduel’s scoring system is very similar but they reward defense more and do not give out bonuses for 3PT made, double-doubles, or triple-doubles. The biggest difference between the sites will be the player’s salary rather than the scoring system, so you shouldn’t worry about the scoring all that much. Players will score well on both sites if they have a good game, so don’t worry about the bonuses too much.

Fanduel Scoring

3-Point Shot Made (3P)1
Assists (A)1.5
Blocks (B)3
Field Goal Made (FG)2
Free Throw Made (FT)1
Rebounds (R)1.2
Steals (S)3
Turnovers (T)-1

Listed below are the average Fanduel fantasy points allowed by each team to each position. We want to target the opposing players of the teams that allow the most points, especially when there are teams that allow significantly more points than the others. For example, the Pelicans give up 9 more fantasy points per game than any other team on today’s slate.

Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game vs Position
TeamTotalPGSGSFPFC
NO231.950.142.941.146.052.8
LAC222.845.640.639.643.853.1
TOR220.143.941.841.245.048.3
UTA215.845.640.737.142.050.7
MIA215.643.741.439.342.149.1
DEN215.544.839.138.642.051.0
IND214.844.940.336.841.451.7
OKC213.944.939.038.140.751.0
LAL212.146.039.939.141.046.4
PHI209.642.640.038.741.946.6

PG:

The 76ers have shaken up their lineup by sliding Ben Simmons to PF and making Shake Milton their starting PG. Milton was playing great before the break and is underpriced today for the spot he’s in. Kyle Lowry gets a great matchup today and he has reportedly looked “awesome” during recent workouts. Lowry will need to do a lot in a tough matchup with the Lakers, and if he continues his pre-break form, he should easily hit value today. Mike Conley stepped up his scoring in their first game with Bogdanovic and his price didn’t move coming into today’s slate. He will need to continue putting up numbers for Utah and he should be able to easily surpass value, especially if he can get his assist numbers back up. Monte Morris could make for a great value option if Jamal Murray is ruled out, so stay tuned for that crucial info.

SG: 

The Pelicans bleed fantasy points everywhere, but the Clippers really only have 2 players right now. Paul George is one of them and is significantly cheaper than the other, making him a great option tonight. PG13 easily surpassed value against the Lakers a few days ago so a matchup against New Orleans should be no problem for him. As expected, Jordan Clarkson benefited greatly from Bogdanovic’s absence, as he ended up leading the team in scoring despite coming off the bench. While a repeat performance isn’t likely here, Clarkson is the primary scoring option from the 2nd unit and should have every opportunity to crush value again. Because of Clarkson’s hot shooting, Donovan Mitchell took a back seat at times, but he still easily surpassed value and he is still the primary option for Utah. The matchup is a lot more difficult today, but Mitchell still seems underpriced for the spot he’s in. Josh Richardson hasn’t really been a focal point of the 76ers’ offense this season, but with Simmons moving to PF, Richardson could absorb some ball-handling duties which would really boost his fantasy outlook. Richardson has been locked into big minutes for Philly and at his price, he should be able to easily hit value today. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has had a breakthrough season with the Thunder and is now their primary option which is very impressive for a 2nd-year player. SGA is another player that seems underpriced today as he has been very consistent this season and should easily pay off his price tag. Tyler Herro could be a sneaky option as he will be making his return from an ankle injury and is almost minimum priced today, but we will need to see confirmation for his minutes to know if he’s playable.

SF: 

As always, LeBron James is a great option at SF, especially since he is the Lakers’ PG with Rondo out. LeBron always seems safe and his playmaking ability makes him a great play once again here. Kawhi Leonard gets a fantastic matchup today, but his price still seems a bit high as he has struggled to surpass value often this season. A meeting with the Pelicans could be just what he needs to get back on track, but even then his price still seems a bit high today. Joe Ingles is starting for Bogdanovic and although he disappointed last game due to foul trouble and turnover woes, he still almost hit value. Ingles does a little bit of everything so he is a somewhat safe pick at his low price with a good amount of upside if his shot is falling. With Sabonis out for the Pacers, T.J. Warren is expected to slide over to PF and absorb some of the shot attempts and rebounds that Sabonis is usually good for. Warren isn’t a very consistent shooter, but he should be able to get enough peripherals to score well even if his shot isn’t falling today. 

PF:

Anthony Davis gets the 2nd best matchup here and is one of the more consistent players in the league when he doesn’t get injured. As always, an early exit is a possibility for AD but his potential in this matchup far outweighs that risk. With Barton and Harris (and maybe Murray?) out for the Nuggets, the PF trio of Paul Millsap, Jerami Grant, and Michael Porter Jr. will need to step up today. They should probably be trusted in that order, but MPJ has looked great in scrimmages and has been known to put up great scores when given the minutes. Royce O’Neale wasn’t all that impressive last game but he still managed to easily pass value by stuffing the stat sheet. He doesn’t necessarily have the highest ceiling but his all-around game should make him one of the safer options at PF today. Bam Adebayo is always a strong option but his price comes in at an awkward spot today. It would probably be better to either go up to AD or down to one of the other solid PF’s, but Adebayo could make for a solid option if you have just enough salary remaining.

C:

Joel Embiid missed a few scrimmages due to a tight calf, but he seems to be fine coming into today. Embiid gets a great matchup and he has dominated the Pacers in the past, making him a great spend-up option today. Nikola Jokic has been playing PG in scrimmages due to the lack of bodies for Denver, but he will be back at Center assuming Murray is back today. Either way, with Barton and Harris out, Jokic will need to do even more offensively, especially since he seems to have slimmed down over the break. We don’t know if that’s a good thing yet, but he has been struggling before the break so maybe it will get him back to his high-scoring ways. Derrick Favors took a backseat last game and disappointed many DFS players (it still hurts) but he gets the best matchup of the slate which is just what he needs for a bounceback. Assuming he takes more than 3 shots today, Favors should have no problem paying off his price. With Sabonis out for the foreseeable future, Myles Turner is the only true big man for the Pacers. Turner gets a tough matchup with Embiid who has held him in check in the past, but as their only reliable option down low, he will need to pick up where he left off before the break.

If you have any questions or need strategy help, feel free to hop in the Premium Discord and ask away.

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