We are back to the usual Sunday race, but this one isn’t the most exciting. This track doesn’t allow for much side-by-side driving so there likely won’t be a lot of carnage. While this is disappointing from a viewing perspective, this does mean that our lineups have less risk this week which is always a plus. The best drivers with the best cars will be the top plays here as it will be tough for them to get passed by the guys at the back, so we want to get a couple guys near the front today.
First of all, below you can see the Draftkings scoring system that is heavily weighted on predicting top finishers, with no captain’s slot or any distinction between picks. The name of this game will be finding lower priced participants that finish well to help afford the more premium guys that are safer bets to show up around the top of the leaderboard. With a solid amount of points being given as a result of place differential, it’s important to pay attention to where racers will be starting in order to find good opportunities. This will be set right before lock so if you play this seriously, you have to be paying attention (or just play on Fanduel haha).
|Place Differential||+/- 1 Pt|
|Fastest Laps||+0.5 Pts|
|Laps Led||+0.25 Pts|
|Finishing Position Scoring|
The largest difference for Fanduel is the lack of scoring for place differential, with points for completing laps instead. This negates the lack of knowledge of where the racers will be starting until just before the contest and helps reward drivers who finish the race over those who give up or say things you probably shouldn’t on stream.
Below we have current betting odds for each driver. These odds are as of 11:00 PM EST on 8/1 and we will look for some value plays relative to their FD & DK pricing.
|Name||Starting Position||Draftkings Salary||Fanduel Salary||William Hill Odds||Bet Online Odds|
|Martin Truex Jr||11||10700||12200||15/2||+900|
|John H. Nemechek||36||7000||6200||1000/1||+100000|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr||31||6800||6800||200/1||+30000|
Every NASCAR slate starts with Kevin Harvick as he is clearly the best driver out there right now. Harvick has 4 straight top-5s including a win his last time out, and he has won 3 of the past 5 races here. His starting position isn’t ideal as he won’t likely lead a ton of laps, but he didn’t lead many laps in his wins here either, so the finishing position could make up for that. There is merit to fading him today though as his price is so high that he will need to do a lot today to be worth it. Someone who should be able to rack up lead laps though is Denny Hamlin who gets the outside pole today. Hamlin has a win and a runner-up in his last 4 appearances here and he has been right up there with Harvick at the top this year. Unfortunately for Christopher Bell, he is back to starting 35th, but that’s great news for DFS. Bell is always a top-15 to top-10 threat and his deep starting position gives him a ton of fantasy upside. Martin Truex Jr. always seems to lead a decent amount of laps here and he has finished in the top-7 his past 5 times at this track. Truex is starting far enough back that another top-7 would be fine and a bunch of lead laps would be great in addition.
Erik Jones is starting 17th once again and not only does he have 2 top-6 finishes in a row coming into this race, he has finished in the top-6 twice in his last 3 appearances here. While another top-6 would be amazing, even a top-10 would make Jones a top option today. Kyle Busch has struggled since the restart, but he has picked it up recently with finishes of 11th, 4th, 2nd in his past three races. Busch has finished in the top-3 7 times in his last 12 tries here so there’s a good chance he continues his upward trend today. Speaking of top finishes here, Matt Kenseth has 7 top-4s in his last 11 races here and he is starting way back at 21st. At his price, Kenseth only really needs a top-15 to be a top play and he is definitely capable of delivering here. After a string of disappointing finishes here, Matt DiBenedetto finished 5th here last year after an equipment change. He hasn’t been the most consistent driver this year but he is starting 19th and should be able to move up into the top-15 and then some.
John H Nemechek is starting all the way back at 36th today, which is great for someone with top-20 upside. Nemechek should be able to crush value today barring disaster and will likely be among the top options of the slate. After 4 finishes in the top-16 in his last 5 races, Ty Dillon is still very cheap today. With that upside from his 25th starting position, he is another great value option today that allows you to get multiple top guys as well. Ryan Preece may not be as appealing as Dillon right next to him, but he is starting a bit further back and also has top-20 upside. It feels like he has either been crushing value or his car recently so as long as it’s the former, he should be a great option today. Ryan Newman hasn’t been all that great this year but he has found himself in the top-20 quite often and he is coming into a track where he finished 7th and 6th the last 2 years. Another top-20 is likely but he is starting 22nd so you may need a little more from him today. If he continues his track form, he’ll be great but another top-10 doesn’t seem all that likely with his recent form.
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