Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 08.02.20

We are back to the usual Sunday race, but this one isn’t the most exciting. This track doesn’t allow for much side-by-side driving so there likely won’t be a lot of carnage. While this is disappointing from a viewing perspective, this does mean that our lineups have less risk this week which is always a plus. The best drivers with the best cars will be the top plays here as it will be tough for them to get passed by the guys at the back, so we want to get a couple guys near the front today. 

First of all, below you can see the Draftkings scoring system that is heavily weighted on predicting top finishers, with no captain’s slot or any distinction between picks. The name of this game will be finding lower priced participants that finish well to help afford the more premium guys that are safer bets to show up around the top of the leaderboard. With a solid amount of points being given as a result of place differential, it’s important to pay attention to where racers will be starting in order to find good opportunities. This will be set right before lock so if you play this seriously, you have to be paying attention (or just play on Fanduel haha). 

Draftkings Scoring

General
Place Differential+/- 1 Pt
Fastest Laps+0.5 Pts
Laps Led+0.25 Pts
Finishing Position Scoring
1st+46 Pts
2nd+42 Pts
3rd+41 Pts
4th+40 Pts
5th+39 Pts
6th+38 Pts
7th+37 Pts
8th+36 Pts
9th+35 Pts
10th+34 Pts
11th+33 Pts
12th+32 Pts
13th+31 Pts
14th+30 Pts
15th+29 Pts
16th+28 Pts
17th+27 Pts
18th+26 Pts
19th+25 Pts
20th+24 Pts
21st+23 Pts
22nd+22 Pts
23rd+21 Pts
24th+20 Pts
25th+19 Pts
26th+18 Pts
27th+17 Pts
28th+16 Pts
29th+15 Pts
30th+14 Pts
31st+13 Pts
32nd+12 Pts
33rd+11 Pts
34th+10 Pts
35th+9 Pts
36th+8 Pts
37th+7 Pts
38th+6 Pts
39th+5 Pts
40th+4 Pts

The largest difference for Fanduel is the lack of scoring for place differential, with points for completing laps instead. This negates the lack of knowledge of where the racers will be starting until just before the contest and helps reward drivers who finish the race over those who give up or say things you probably shouldn’t on stream. 

Fanduel Scoring

Place Differential0.5
Laps Completed0.1
Laps Led0.1
1st place43
2nd place40
3rd place38
4th place37
5th place36
6th place35
7th place34
8th place33
9th place32
10th place31
11th place30
12th place29
13th place28
14th place27
15th place26
16th place25
17th place24
18th place23
19th place22
20th place21
21st place20
22nd place19
23rd place18
24th place17
25th place16
26th place15
27th place14
28th place13
29th place12
30th place11
31st place10
32nd place9
33rd place8
34th place7
35th place6
36th place5
37th place4
38th place3
39th place2
40th place1

Below we have current betting odds for each driver. These odds are as of 11:00 PM EST on 8/1 and we will look for some value plays relative to their FD & DK pricing. 

NameStarting PositionDraftkings SalaryFanduel SalaryWilliam Hill OddsBet Online Odds
Kevin Harvick7116001420014/5+300
Ryan Blaney12111001160010/1+1000
Martin Truex Jr11107001220015/2+900
Denny Hamlin2104001340011/2+400
Christopher Bell35101009000100/1+1000
Joey Logano998001100012/1+1000
Brad Keselowski495001200012/1+1200
Kyle Busch593001260011/2+500
Chase Elliott391001270012/1+900
Erik Jones1789001030030/1+2500
Jimmie Johnson208700300030/1+3300
Aric Almirola185001050018/1+2000
Matt DiBenedetto198300870040/1+2500
Alex Bowman88100980040/1+4000
William Byron167900850050/1+6000
Kurt Busch1077001000028/1+2500
Matt Kenseth217600800075/1+5000
Tyler Reddick1375008200100/1+7500
Austin Dillon2374007000150/1+10000
Clint Bowyer67200940040/1+5000
John H. Nemechek36700062001000/1+100000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr3168006800200/1+30000
Cole Custer1467007700100/1+10000
Ryan Newman2266007400100/1+8000
Bubba Wallace1565006300300/1+50000
Michael McDowell18630060001500/1+100000
Corey Lajoie33620040005000/1+100000
Chris Buescher2461006000250/1+25000
Daniel Suarez37590045002500/1+100000
Ty Dillon25570050002000/1+35000
Ryan Preece30560055001000/1+75000
Timmy Hill38540030005000/1+100000
JJ Yeley29520093005000/1+100000
Brennan Poole34500035005000/1+100000
Joey Gase28490030005000/1+100000
Garrett Smithley27470030005000/1+100000
Quin Houff32460030005000/1+100000
James Davison2645003500

Top Tier: 

Every NASCAR slate starts with Kevin Harvick as he is clearly the best driver out there right now. Harvick has 4 straight top-5s including a win his last time out, and he has won 3 of the past 5 races here. His starting position isn’t ideal as he won’t likely lead a ton of laps, but he didn’t lead many laps in his wins here either, so the finishing position could make up for that. There is merit to fading him today though as his price is so high that he will need to do a lot today to be worth it. Someone who should be able to rack up lead laps though is Denny Hamlin who gets the outside pole today. Hamlin has a win and a runner-up in his last 4 appearances here and he has been right up there with Harvick at the top this year. Unfortunately for Christopher Bell, he is back to starting 35th, but that’s great news for DFS. Bell is always a top-15 to top-10 threat and his deep starting position gives him a ton of fantasy upside. Martin Truex Jr. always seems to lead a decent amount of laps here and he has finished in the top-7 his past 5 times at this track. Truex is starting far enough back that another top-7 would be fine and a bunch of lead laps would be great in addition.

Mid Tier: 

Erik Jones is starting 17th once again and not only does he have 2 top-6 finishes in a row coming into this race, he has finished in the top-6 twice in his last 3 appearances here. While another top-6 would be amazing, even a top-10 would make Jones a top option today. Kyle Busch has struggled since the restart, but he has picked it up recently with finishes of 11th, 4th, 2nd in his past three races. Busch has finished in the top-3 7 times in his last 12 tries here so there’s a good chance he continues his upward trend today. Speaking of top finishes here, Matt Kenseth has 7 top-4s in his last 11 races here and he is starting way back at 21st. At his price, Kenseth only really needs a top-15 to be a top play and he is definitely capable of delivering here. After a string of disappointing finishes here, Matt DiBenedetto finished 5th here last year after an equipment change. He hasn’t been the most consistent driver this year but he is starting 19th and should be able to move up into the top-15 and then some.

Value Tier:

John H Nemechek is starting all the way back at 36th today, which is great for someone with top-20 upside. Nemechek should be able to crush value today barring disaster and will likely be among the top options of the slate. After 4 finishes in the top-16 in his last 5 races, Ty Dillon is still very cheap today. With that upside from his 25th starting position, he is another great value option today that allows you to get multiple top guys as well.  Ryan Preece may not be as appealing as Dillon right next to him, but he is starting a bit further back and also has top-20 upside. It feels like he has either been crushing value or his car recently so as long as it’s the former, he should be a great option today. Ryan Newman hasn’t been all that great this year but he has found himself in the top-20 quite often and he is coming into a track where he finished 7th and 6th the last 2 years. Another top-20 is likely but he is starting 22nd so you may need a little more from him today. If he continues his track form, he’ll be great but another top-10 doesn’t seem all that likely with his recent form.

Thank you for reading! Follow us on twitter to stay up to date on all future posts. @GameOnDFS

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