08.02.20 NBA Main Slate

After the highest scoring day in NBA history, the average score per team dropped by 11 yesterday. Was yesterday the outlier and the bubble is going to see more crazy high scores or did everyone just decide to not play defense on the same day and now we’re back to normal? Either way, we should see some closer games today at least, which will be a sight for sore eyes after some ugly games the past few days.

For NBA DFS, high-volume scorers generally have the highest ceiling as a hot shooting night can lead to a ton of points. For safety purposes, we want to look for players that can stuff the stat sheet as an off shooting night won’t hurt them too much if they are racking up peripherals. For GPP lineups, you will generally want a mix of both as expecting your entire lineup to shoot well isn’t realistic, but you still want to take advantage of those ceilings. For cash games, you don’t really need that ceiling so it is usually best to get all-around players.

Draftkings Scoring

Per Hole Scoring
Point+1 Pt
Made 3pt Shot+0.5 Pts
Rebound+1.25 Pts
Assist+1.5 Pts
Steal+2 Pts
Block+2 Pts
Turnover-0.5 pts
Double-Double{Max 1 Per Player: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals}+1.5 Pts
Triple-Double{Max 1 Per Player: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals}+3 Pts

Fanduel’s scoring system is very similar but they reward defense more and do not give out bonuses for 3PT made, double-doubles, or triple-doubles. The biggest difference between the sites will be the player’s salary rather than the scoring system, so you shouldn’t worry about the scoring all that much. Players will score well on both sites if they have a good game, so don’t worry about the bonuses too much.

Fanduel Scoring

3-Point Shot Made (3P)1
Assists (A)1.5
Blocks (B)3
Field Goal Made (FG)2
Free Throw Made (FT)1
Rebounds (R)1.2
Steals (S)3
Turnovers (T)-1

Listed below are the average Fanduel fantasy points allowed by each team to each position. We want to target the opposing players of the teams that allow the most points, especially when there are teams that allow significantly more points than the others. For example, the Kings and Magic both have stingy defenses and are facing each other, so that may not be the best matchup to target today.

Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game vs Position
TeamTotalPGSGSFPFC
WAS234.149.34342.445.354.4
POR231.948.541.840.847.154.2
HOU231.347.243.541.447.751.9
MEM230.546.84441.74553
PHO226.446.742.440.844.152.6
SAS226.447.442.840.844.850.7
BKN224.947.940.539.542.855
DAL221.545.34141.643.450.8
SAC220.246.64340.34149.4
MIL219.54640.4394351.6
ORL218.945.34139.545.248.2
BOS21543.540.63843.749.7

PG:

After a tough game against the Mavericks, Russell Westbrook has an even more difficult matchup with the Bucks today. Luckily for him, they are weakest defensively against point guards and Harden should be contained (if possible) by Giannis and Middleton, so Westbrook should have to take on more of the scoring load. Westbrook also comes in at a nice $1k discount from his backcourt partner, making him a great play with high upside today. Ja Morant was disappointing a lot of people last game before he absolutely went off in the 2nd half and easily crushed value. Unfortunately he is among the many players whose prices jumped after strong performances, but Morant gets a great matchup with a Spurs team that is focusing on developing young talent in the bubble. One of those young players is Derrick White who saw the 2nd most minutes for San Antonio last game while tying for the most shot attempts. White also has a good matchup here as this game should be high scoring, and he should be able to easily hit value again here. Another high scoring game should be the first of the night, as the Nets and Wizards are both lacking bodies and don’t have the most structure right now, Ish Smith should be able to thrive here. Despite coming off the bench, Ish had the most shot attempts and also had more than double anyone else’s assists, so he is clearly a primary option for the shorthanded Wizards. George Hill ended up coming off the bench last game despite Beldsoe’s absence, but he still played more minutes than both starting guards. Hill wasn’t all that impressive but was still able to just about hit value, so he could make for a solid value option if you wanted to punt PG today.

SG: 

With Bledsoe out again, Khris Middleton seems like a great option once again, especially in a high-paced matchup with the Rockets. Middleton shot poorly last game and still easily surpassed value, and his price went down for some reason, so he makes for a great play again. The other half of Milwaukee’s backcourt in Donte Divincenzo is also a solid value option today as he is locked into big minutes and has the kind of all-around game that can easily pay off his low price. Divincenzo isn’t a main focus for this team so he isn’t all that safe, but he should play enough in a close game to work out today. Another SG pair is DeMar DeRozan and Lonnie Walker for the Spurs who get a great matchup with the Grizzlies. DeRozan is the primary option for San Antonio and is a great option, but they are supposedly trying to develop their young talent so there is some risk there. Walker however is that young talent so he is locked into big minutes which should allow him to easily hit value once again today. On the other side of the court, Dillon Brooks is coming off a poor shooting performance that still saw him surpass value and the Spurs bleed points to shooting guards. This should be a back-and-forth game which favors shooters like Brooks. Caris LeVert let down a lot of people last game in a blowout loss to the Magic, but he gets a great matchup with the Wizards to redeem himself. LeVert led the team in FGA and assists, proving that the Nets are his team right now, so he should be able to step up in a great matchup and prove that he can lead this team. Luka Doncic is a solid spend-up option today but there are so many good SG’s that you may want to use all that salary elsewhere. Still though, he has a great matchup and is a top-3 fantasy option this year, so he is definitely in play.

SF: 

When Giannis Anteotkounmpo is on the slate, it’s always tough to avoid him. He has probably the highest floor of anyone in the league every night, but it’s always tough to pay that much for anyone. Still, the Rockets are allergic to defense and Giannis should be able to walk all over their tiny team. Evan Fournier played great against the Nets and he gets another plus matchup today. Fournier always seems to be able to get to value even if his shot isn’t falling, making him a standout option among all the similarly priced SF’s. Mikal Bridges couldn’t carry over his scrimmage performances into the Sun’s first real game, but he still put up a respectable score. His price has dropped a decent amount and he is locked into big minutes in a matchup with the Mavericks whose worst defense is against small forwards, so Bridges is in a prime spot to bounce back. Danuel House saw huge minutes for the Rockets due to injuries, and his price didn’t really change at all after crushing value. The Bucks will be a tough test but if Harden is locked down, other shooters will need to step up and House should benefit greatly. Not only are the Spurs trying to develop their youth, Bellinelli is doubtful for their game so Keldon Johnson may see 30 minutes once again. He isn’t the most talented player but when you can get 30 minutes from a guy that cheap, you really aren’t asking for much.

PF:

Nemanja Bjelica is starting for the injured Marvin Bagley and, despite fouling out last game, he easily surpassed value. Bjelica has been very consistent for the Kings this season and is still underpriced for his production, especially in a plus matchup. On the flipside, Jaren Jackson Jr. saw a huge price jump to the price he should’ve been last time they played, but he has a good matchup and can easily pay off if he continues shooting like he did last game. The peripherals are lacking for JJJ but his stellar shooting and defense are usually enough for fantasy purposes, as long as he can stay out of foul trouble. Brandon Clarke may be JJJ’s backup, but you wouldn’t know that by watching him play. Clarke has been very impressive in his rookie year and he should see himself in the starting lineup sometime in the near future, but for now he will continue to destroy the opposing team’s bench bigs. His numbers last game were somewhat inflated though due to his 88% FG% and FT% as well as Valanciunas’ foul trouble, but Clarke has been very impressive and is locked into big minutes off the bench. Another impressive rookie, Rui Hachimura is the primary option for the shorthanded Wizards and he gets a great matchup against the Nets today. Hachimura isn’t the most consistent player, but he has a very high ceiling and is really the only reliable option for Washington right now, so he is firmly in play today. Jayson Tatum is coming off maybe the worst game of his career that saw him shoot 1-17 (technically 2-18 thanks to a Bucks own-basket) but he has a prime bounceback matchup. Tatum started the season very slow so maybe he takes longer to get back into game form than others, but he has a very high ceiling here, especially with Kemba on a minutes restriction still.

C:

Usually when looking for a DFS Center, we want to see who is playing the Nets or Wizards. Today they face each other so we can target both sides with confidence. Thomas Bryant comes in at a decent discount to Jarrett Allen, and his outside game should give him a slight edge in the scoring department. Allen however is a much better rebounder and could rack up blocks, so both sides of this matchup are playable. P.J. Tucker is locked into huge minutes for the Rockets and is very cheap today in a decent matchup at Center. Tucker isn’t asked to do much for his team, but when you play almost 40 minutes, it’s hard not to hit value at this price. Deandre Ayton is coming off a great game against the Wizards and while this matchup isn’t anywhere near as easy, the Mavericks play at a fast pace that should allow Ayton to put up big numbers again, especially if they can keep the game close. Maybe the most consistent center on the slate, Nikola Vucevic just seems to always hover around value at worst and get to face the Kings who are lacking bodies in the frontcourt. Vucevic’s score may not have been all that great last game, but it was a blowout so he only played 27 minutes. Expect a closer game here and in turn, a higher score for Vucci Mane.

If you have any questions or need strategy help, feel free to hop in the Premium Discord and ask away.

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