08.03.20 NBA Main Slate

Looks like that low scoring day may have been the outlier as every team easily broke 100 points yesterday. Thankfully today’s slate doesn’t have all the outrageously expensive players that we had to choose between yesterday, so we don’t have to stress as much over which stud to pay up for. There were some great games yesterday and only 1 blowout, so hopefully we see a similar result today as having a player not hit value because of a blowout is a terrible feeling. Also, our best wishes go out to Jonathan Isaac and we hope he can recover well and avoid more injuries in the future.

For NBA DFS, high-volume scorers generally have the highest ceiling as a hot shooting night can lead to a ton of points. For safety purposes, we want to look for players that can stuff the stat sheet as an off shooting night won’t hurt them too much if they are racking up peripherals. For GPP lineups, you will generally want a mix of both as expecting your entire lineup to shoot well isn’t realistic, but you still want to take advantage of those ceilings. For cash games, you don’t really need that ceiling so it is usually best to get all-around players.

Draftkings Scoring

Per Hole Scoring
Point+1 Pt
Made 3pt Shot+0.5 Pts
Rebound+1.25 Pts
Assist+1.5 Pts
Steal+2 Pts
Block+2 Pts
Turnover-0.5 pts
Double-Double{Max 1 Per Player: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals}+1.5 Pts
Triple-Double{Max 1 Per Player: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals}+3 Pts

Fanduel’s scoring system is very similar but they reward defense more and do not give out bonuses for 3PT made, double-doubles, or triple-doubles. The biggest difference between the sites will be the player’s salary rather than the scoring system, so you shouldn’t worry about the scoring all that much. Players will score well on both sites if they have a good game, so don’t worry about the bonuses too much.

Fanduel Scoring

3-Point Shot Made (3P)1
Assists (A)1.5
Blocks (B)3
Field Goal Made (FG)2
Free Throw Made (FT)1
Rebounds (R)1.2
Steals (S)3
Turnovers (T)-1

Listed below are the average Fanduel fantasy points allowed by each team to each position. We want to target the opposing players of the teams that allow the most points, especially when there are teams that allow significantly more points than the others. For example, the Pelicans and Grizzlies allow the 2nd and 3rd most fantasy points and are facing each other, so that could be a great matchup to target.

Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game vs Position
TeamTotalPGSGSFPFC
WAS234.149.343.142.445.254.5
NOR232.150.242.841.24652.8
MEM230.546.84441.74553
SAS226.447.442.840.844.850.7
TOR2204441.74145.148.2
UTA215.945.740.9374250.8
DEN215.744.838.838.742.251.2
MIA215.443.641.439.341.949.1
IND21544.839.936.741.652.3
OKC213.644.738.93840.750.9
LAL212.346.339.739.241.146.2
PHI210.142.84038.942.146.6

PG:

Ja Morant has come out hot in the bubble and he now gets to face the worst point guard defense in the league. There’s not much else to say here, this should be a crazy high scoring game so we want to get multiple pieces from both sides. As of now, it is assumed that Brogdon and Oladipo are both out today, so Aaron Holiday becomes a tremendous value play at an unusually low price. Holiday crushed value last game and didn’t see a price increase, so he is firmly in play once again. We are also under the assumption right now that Murray, Harris, and Barton are all out once again for the Nuggets, making Monte Morris also a great value play. Unfortunately, Denver is facing the best backcourt defense in the league in OKC, so Morris isn’t as good of a play as he seems, but he should still be able to reach value today if you are paying down at PG. Although he is technically starting at PF now, Ben Simmons is a great pick here today in a matchup with the lowly Spurs. We don’t usually think of the Spurs as a terrible defensive team, but crazier things have happened in 2020. Simmons should easily be able to hit value, but there is a decent chance that this game is a blowout and he doesn’t get a full allotment of minutes, so maybe don’t go crazy here. 

SG: 

Jrue Holiday has been underwhelming in the bubble thus far, but so has the rest of his team. The Pelicans look atrocious right now but the Grizzlies aren’t nearly as good as the defensive power houses they have played so far, so Holiday and the rest of the team should bounce back well in a plus matchup. Dillon Brooks is Holiday’s Memphis counterpart and, despite his horrid 36/19/67 shooting splits in the bubble so far, Brooks has actually scored fairly well considering. If he gets hot from the field, Brooks should be able to crush value, especially in a high scoring matchup that promotes volume shooters. While it may not be the highest scoring game of the say, Jimmy Butler gets a good matchup against the Raptors in what should be a close one. Butler does a little bit of everything making him a fairly safe play, especially in a game that should require a lot more out of him than their blowout against Denver. He also has a good counterpart in Fred Vanvleet who quietly put up a really solid game against the Lakers. The Heat have struggled against SG’s this year while clamping down on PG’s, so if Lowry is held in check VanVleet should pick up the slack. As mentioned above with Monte Morris, the Nuggets are lacking bodies right now so Torrey Craig also gets a huge boost. Craig also didn’t see a price jump despite a solid outing so he makes for a great value play if all those guys are still out as expected. 

SF: 

Unfortunately for us, T.J. Warren just had the best game of his career and will surely be popular at his price now so we will have to decide to eat the chalk or not. The Wizards allow more points to opposing forwards than any team today so Warren should be able to crush again as the primary option for Indiana, though don’t expect another 50 point outing here. Jae Crowder gets a good matchup with the Raptors and he should be able to easily hit value at his low price. Crowder is locked into big minutes for Miami and they will need his defense in a tough matchup with the Raptors today. Justin Holiday (yes there are 3 Holidays in play today) is in a great spot today if Oladipo and Brogdon are both ruled out as expected. The 3rd Holiday brother isn’t the most exciting player but he is in line for a ton of minutes again and is so cheap that he doesn’t need to do much to hit value today. Brandon Ingram is a part of the darling NO/MEM game today and is therefore automatically in play. Ingram has been disappointing thus far in the bubble, especially since he should be the one to step up with Zion on a minutes restriction, but this is a great bounce back opportunity. This matchup should be very high scoring and Ingram is probably the best pure scorer on either team, so look for him to get back on track today. Troy Brown nearly had a triple-double yesterday and his price went down, so expect him to be very highly owned. While he is one of the only Washington players capable of doing anything right now, the Pacers have locked down SF’s this season thanks to Warren’s great defense, so fading him could pay off today, especially with the other solid SF options. Still, someone has to do something for Washington, so it probably isn’t the best idea to completely fade him today.

PF:

Jaren Jackson Jr. has been the antithesis to his teammate Brooks so far in the bubble, with 51/40/83 shooting splits, and he gets the best PF matchup of the slate. JJJ’s scoring will be needed in this fast-paced game, and his defensive prowess could pay off against the team averaging the most TO/game in the NBA this season. Bam Adebayo has been a breakout star this season and he seems to always be able to hit value. Bam gets a great matchup with the Raptors that should be pretty close, allowing him to see more than the 28 minutes from their last game which should lead to a great score today. The Denver PF trio of Paul Millsap, Jerami Grant, and Michael Porter Jr. is in play once again as they are still missing 3 starters today. All 3 players are viable and it is tough to differentiate between them, but they all have their upsides. Millsap is probably the safest option but with the lowest ceiling, while MPJ has the highest ceiling and lowest floor and Grant finds himself in the middle of both. Deciding between them will come down to how much risk you want today, as well as how much salary you have remaining.

C:

Thomas Bryant is coming off a career night and, while he doesn’t get to face the Nets again, the Pacers have lots of trouble against Centers. Embiid put up a 41/21 game against them 2 days ago so Bryant should be able to have his way for the second night in a row. On the other side of this matchup is Myles Turner who is coming off a game where Embiid dominated him in every way, but he gets to redeem himself against the lowly Wizards. Turner has a direct path to production with all the injuries for Indiana, and this is the perfect matchup for him to show his worth. Jonas Valancius isn’t the safest center due to the prowess of Clarke behind him, but the Grizzlies get the dream matchup with the horrible Pelicans today. This game should be ridiculously high scoring and JoVal should be able to feast down low as long as he stays out of foul trouble and can keep up with the pace. Once again we look at the other side of this matchup as the Grizzlies have struggled defensively as well so Derrick Favors is in a good spot to bounce back from a couple rough games back from the break. Favors should be taking advantage of Zion’s minutes restriction and he will be needed today against the trio of talented bigs for Memphis. Yesterday’s slate saw both Centers in the WAS/BKN absolutely crush value and we may be in store for another day of ping-pong centers.

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