08.04.20 MLB Main Slate

Pitching is abundant today but there are still a few offenses in good spots. Hopefully not too many of you were bitten by Soroka yesterday and we wish him the best in his recovery. Freak injuries like that always remind us how much these slates often come down to luck and no amount of research can ever have you fully prepared for what lies ahead. Good luck today and game on. 

DraftKings uses this scoring:

Hitters
Single+3 Pts
Double+5 Pts
Triple+8 Pts
Home Run+10 Pts
Run Batted In+2 Pts
Run+2 Pts
Base on Balls+2 Pts
Hit By Pitch+2 Pts
Stolen Base+5 Pts
Pitchers
Inning Pitched+2.25 Pts
Strikeout+2 Pts
Win+4 Pts
Earned Run Allowed-2 Pts
Hit Against-0.6 Pts
Base on Balls Against-0.6 Pts
Hit Batsman-0.6 Pts
Complete Game+2.5 Pts
Complete Game Shutout+2.5 Pts
No Hitter+5 Pts

Fanduel uses the following:

Hitters
Single+3 Pts
Double+6 Pts
Triple+9 Pts
Home Run+12 Pts
Run Batted In+3.5 Pts
Run+3.2 Pts
Base on Balls+3 Pts
Hit By Pitch+3 Pts
Stolen Base+6 Pts
Pitchers
Inning Pitched+3 Pts
Strikeout+3 Pts
Win+6 Pts
Earned Run Allowed-3 Pts
Quality Start4 Pts

Mets(+138) V Nationals(-162) 7:05 EST

PitcherDK $FD $ERAWHIPL wOBAR wOBA
Steven Matz$7,400$7,9004.211.34.339.321
Patrick Corbin$10,400$10,8003.251.18.229.298

Steve Matz has looked great and his increased velocity is certainly a good sign. The Nationals offense has some good bats but they are significantly weakened by not having Rendon, Soto, etc there right now. He is capable of doing well here but there are better options today. 

Patrick Corbin is off to a great start and has the Mets to deal with here. Cespedes has backed out of the year and McNeil is dealing with an injury so this lineup has already been impacted. Conforto has hit him really well in the past but this is a matchup that leans in Corbin’s favor. 

Blue Jays(-130) V Braves (+110) 8:10 EST

PitcherDK $FD $ERAWHIPL wOBAR wOBA
Matt Shoemaker$7,900$7,5001.570.87.279.212
Max Fried$8,500$5,2004.021.33.280.326

Matt Shoemaker gets the ball tonight against the Braves. His debut against the Rays gave hope that his ACL injury did not diminish the plus stuff he was showing off before the injury. His strikeout potential is not great and the Braves have a scary offense so we aren’t looking here. 

Max Fried is a high upside pitcher due to his strikeout curveball. He is a lefty facing a team that does most of its damage from the right side but a few of their bats have looked asleep at the wheel so far so we have a little more confidence in Fried. He is absurdly cheap on FD and worth a flier. 

Marlins(+114) V Orioles(-130) 7:35 EST

PitcherDK $FD $ERAWHIPL wOBAR wOBA
Pablo Lopez$6,600$7,0005.091.24.367.265
John Means$6,400$5,8003.601.14.235.314

Pablo Lopez is a trash can who had a particular problem with pitching on the road last year (7 ERA). The only plus for him is that he’s facing the Orioles but they have held their own so far this year. Rio Ruiz is an option, as well as Santander. Make sure they are batting in the top half of the order. 

John Means looked terrible in his debut after dealing with arm soreness but the Marlins are not exactly the same as the Yankees’ offense. The Marlins have looked solid at the plate so far and could have potential here as Means tries to get his footing. 

White Sox(+118) V Brewers (-139) 8:10 EST

PitcherDK $FD $ERAWHIPL wOBAR wOBA
Lucas Giolito$9,100$9,4003.411.06.241.306
Brandon Woodruff$8,300$9,2003.621.14.326.240

Giolito got off to a rough start in his debut but looked like the ace he is in his second appearance. We are more likely to see the top of the rotation version of him here and we’ll pick on the Brewers a bit. He is playable everywhere. 

Although Woodruff’s LOB% will drop a bit, none of his other underlying stats show any reason why we should expect regression. He has been fantastic so far and is a great upside option, but this White Sox offense is scary. We are not blindly plugging and playing him given the risk, but he should find his way into a lot of lineups, especially on DK at that price. 

Royals(+190) V Cubs(-225) 8:15 EST

PitcherDK $FD $ERAWHIPL wOBAR wOBA
Brady Singer$6,900$6,4003.471.24
Kyle Hendricks$7,700$8,3003.461.13.283.297

Singer has had a great start to his big league career so far, pitching 5 innings with only 2 earned runs in each start. The strikeout upside isn’t crazy for him, so we prefer looking at him on DK than FD. Look for Cubs lefties to lead the way and they should be good for a few runs in this one. 

Kyle Hendricks had a debut that pitchers could only dream about, before crashing back down to earth against the Reds. His talent lies somewhere in between but his strikeout upside is always backseat to his ability to generate weak contact and ground balls. The Royals are a solid matchup and he’s playable, but likely overshadowed by better options. 

Giants(+170) V Rockies(-200) 8:40 EST

PitcherDK $FD $ERAWHIPL wOBAR wOBA
Kevin Gausman$5,700$6,2005.721.42.329.333
German Marquez$8,100$7,4004.761.20.328.294

Kevin Gausman has gotten strikeouts but also given up runs so far. He has never pitched at  Coors before and we can only expect him to fail here. Rockies bats are all in play again. Lefties like Blackmon and Dahl are great but anybody in the top half of the order makes sense. 

Marquez has been great to start the year but he has been pitching away from Coors field. It’s a different animal to be pitching a mile high and this Giants roster has a bunch of players who have loved to face off with him. Batters have the advantage here and we like Belt, Crawford, Yastrzemski, and Pence. 

Rangers(+145) V Athletics(-167) 9:10 EST

PitcherDK $FD $ERAWHIPL wOBAR wOBA
Lance Lynn$9,900$9,3003.671.22.310.277
Jesus Luzardo$7,600$6,1001.500.67.104.237

Lance Lynn has been immaculate so far and is running into an Athletics team that scored 11 runs yesterday. He has had success with most of the lineup but Marcus Semien has hit him well. He should be able to hold his own but expect to see his first earned runs come here. 

Jesus Luzardo is starting after serving in relief earlier this year. He is incredibly talented and he pitches from the left side, nerfing the effectiveness of guys like Gallo and Odor. We love him here but are concerned he won’t have a high enough pitch count to be worth it. His k upside makes him a fun flier on FD, where he can allow you to build a fun lineup around him. 

Astros(-132) V Diamondbacks(+114) 9:10 EST

PitcherDK $FD $ERAWHIPL wOBAR wOBA
Cristian Javier$6,500$7,2001.640.82
Madison Bumgarner$7,200$7,7003.901.13.237.318

Cristian Javier may be the key play for the entire slate. He is beyond cheap everywhere and has fantastic strikeout upside. If he has control of his stuff here, he may well be the top scoring arm on the day and the key to winning a GPP. He is young and inexperienced, but this kid can pitch. 

Madison Bumgarner’s velocity is telling him something is wrong or his career is nearing the end but he is not listening. His fastball is sitting under 90 MPH and as a lefty facing the Astros, we can’t wait to see how this goes. Altuve, Bregman, and Springer all have multiple HR potential. 

Dodgers(-134) V Padres(+116) 9:10 EST

PitcherDK $FD $ERAWHIPL wOBAR wOBA
Dustin May$7,500$5,9003.631.10.379.210
Dinelson Lamet$9,500$8,4004.07.223.318.297

Dustin May has looked great on the surface but he’s allowing too many baserunners and it will catch up with him eventually. The Padres are a solid matchup for him but a limited leash and the underlying fundamentals are telling us to look elsewhere today unless you need a cheap punt option. 

Dinelson Lamet is throwing gas and getting great results so far. He has been generating swings and misses at a great clip and limiting hard contact. He is a righty facing a lefty so this is a tough matchup, but he has the stuff to hang around with anyone. 

Angels(-200) V Mariners(+170) 10:10 EST

PitcherDK $FD $ERAWHIPL wOBAR wOBA
Andrew Heaney$8,000$7,3004.911.29.386.307
Justin Dunn$4,900$5,6002.701.65.460.135

Heaney has already faced the Mariners this year with 6 strikeouts and 2 ER. A similar start here can be expected but he has a bit higher upside if his velocity can hold steady with better conditioning. He’s an okay flier but not really a key target today. 

Justin Dunn is also facing the Angels again and he was doing well last time until Ohtani ruined his evening. Mike Trout is expected back after the birth of his child so pay attention to that. They have a chance to put up a bunch of runs here and the additions of Trout and Jo Adell (a top prospect) could provide the fire the need on offense. 

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